The 2025 Kentucky Derby will take place on Saturday at Churchill Downs, with a 2025 Kentucky Derby post time of 6:57 p.m. ET. Only one horse, Authentic in 2020, has won the Kentucky Derby in a time faster than 2:01 since 2001. Secretariat holds the record for fastest run at the Kentucky Derby, winning in 1973 in 1:59.40 before capturing the Triple Crown. Rodriguez, a Bob Baffert horse at 12-1 odds, is the son of Authentic, so given that pedigree, should you use him in your 2025 Kentucky Derby bets? Journalism is the 3-1 favorite in the latest 2025 Kentucky Derby odds, followed by Sovereignty (5-1) and Sandman (6-1) among the 2025 Kentucky Derby horses.
Journalism will break from the No. 8 post at Churchill Downs, while Sovereignty and Sandman will both need to run from the outside. Before making any 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, be sure to see the horse racing predictions and futures bets from SportsLine’s elite horse racing expert Jody Demling.
A fixture in the horse racing world who has been writing about, talking about and betting on races for years, Demling has nailed the Kentucky Oaks-Derby double 11 times in the last 16 years. He also predicted the winner of the Belmont Stakes four of the last seven years and called 10 of the last 20 Preakness winners, including in 2023, when he hit the winner, exacta, trifecta and superfecta, as well as the trifecta in 2024. Anyone who has followed him on those picks is up huge.
Now, with the 2025 Kentucky Derby post positions set and odds on the board, Demling is sharing his picks and 2025 Kentucky Derby betting predictions over at SportsLine. Go here to see them.
Top 2025 Kentucky Derby predictions
One of Demling’s surprising 2025 Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading Rodriguez (12-1), who barely hits the board in his 2025 Kentucky Derby projections. Only three 2025 Kentucky Derby horses have shorter odds than Rodriguez, despite the horse only winning one of the three races he has run against opponents in the 2025 Kentucky Derby field. Rodriguez finished third in the San Felipe Stakes, which was won by Journalism, and placed second in the Robert B. Lewis Stakes. Citizen Bull won that race.
Rodriguez will generate publicity and betting interest since he is Bob Baffert’s best shot at winning a record seventh Kentucky Derby. Baffert is tied for the most Kentucky Derby wins, but many of those victories came from the most dominant horse entering the race. Rodriguez, who has failed to win three of five career races, won’t be the most dominant horse on paper for the first Saturday in May. Given his 12-1 odds, Demling is staying away. See which other 2025 Kentucky Derby horses to avoid at SportsLine.
Another stunner: Demling is high on Luxor Cafe, even though he is a 15-1 longshot in the Kentucky Derby odds 2025. Although Rodriguez has a strong pedigree as the son of a fast Kentucky Derby winner in Authentic, Luxor Cafe can one-up that as the son of American Pharoah, the 2015 Triple Crown winner. American Pharoah won nine of his final 10 races, finishing second in the Travers Stakes in his only non-victory over that span, as one of the most dominant horses in history.
Luxor Cafe has his own results to justify his skillset outside of just a strong pedigree. The Japanese horse has won four of six career starts and is 4-for-4 in victories over his last four runs. He won three stakes during that span to secure his spot in the 2025 Kentucky Derby field. No Japanese horse has won a Kentucky Derby, but Forever Young finished third last year, and Demling believes Luxor Cafe can reach a higher level of greatness for Japanese horses at the 2025 Kentucky Derby. See which other horses to back at SportsLine.
How to make 2025 Kentucky Derby picks, bets
Demling is especially high on a double-digit longshot who is coming off an “impressive” and unexpected showing in his last race. Demling is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2025 Kentucky Derby leaderboard, over at SportsLine.
Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2025, and which double-digit longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2025 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Demling’s picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who has nailed 11 Derby-Oaks doubles.