Let’s start with the easy part: If Cam Ward doesn’t go first overall in the NFL Draft it would be one of the biggest surprises in draft history, but he’ll still go early in the first round.
After Ward? Nothing seems too certain for the quarterbacks in this NFL Draft.
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It’s not the best year to need a quarterback. The Tennessee Titans should be excited to draft Ward, but it’s not a strong class after him. Shedeur Sanders is a total mystery. Jaxson Dart seems to be far from a first-round lock, though some mocks have him as a surprise pick in the top 10. Jalen Milroe has plenty of tools and has been a buzzy name lately, but is he a first-round talent?
While there are questions everywhere in this quarterback class, BetMGM’s odds indicate that the betting market expects three or more to go in the first round. At least we can be sure that one will be picked early.
Odds on 3 or more first-round QBs
BetMGM offers a prop on the total number of quarterbacks to be selected in the first round. The total is 2.5 and the over is a heavy favorite.
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Over 2.5 quarterbacks to be picked in the first round is -450 (bet $450 to win $100). That’s implied odds of 81.8%. The under is +310.
There are two key teams in the equation when it comes to that quarterback bet: the New Orleans Saints and Pittsburgh Steelers. The Saints have a significant need at quarterback with Derek Carr’s status for the 2025 season up in the air and have the ninth pick of the draft. They’re a prime candidate to pick a quarterback. So are the Steelers, who are still waiting to officially sign Aaron Rodgers but would need a quarterback of the future no matter what happens with the 41-year-old Rodgers.
Both of those teams need quarterbacks but there’s no guarantee they’ll love the quarterbacks available to them. One team evaluator told Yahoo Sports’ Jori Epstein in March his team had a fourth-round grade on Sanders. If the Steelers and Saints feel the same way, maybe Sanders has a long fall in the NFL Draft. It’s not like Dart, who is listed at No. 70 on the big board of Yahoo Sports’ Nate Tice, is guaranteed to grade higher than Sanders. Milroe is No. 69 on Tice’s big board. Only two quarterbacks, Ward and Sanders, rank higher than 62nd.
And bettors would need two quarterbacks other than Ward to go in the first round to hit the over.
Miami Hurricanes quarterback Cam Ward (1) is a heavy favorite to go first overall in the NFL Draft. (Photo by David Rosenblum/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
(Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Which teams will draft a QB early?
There are plenty of ways three or more quarterbacks can land in the first round, even if it’s not the strongest class at the position.
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Sanders is -200 at BetMGM to be a top 10 pick; even if he doesn’t go that high it would be a surprise if he’s not a first-round pick. And if the Saints or Steelers pass on first-round quarterbacks, perhaps a team like the Los Angeles Rams could use a first-round pick on a quarterback of the future. Teams could talk themselves into Dart, Milroe or Tyler Shough in the first round. It’s not a particularly deep draft, so the opportunity cost of taking a quarterback late in the first round isn’t too high.
The fifth-year option for first-round picks is always a factor for quarterbacks too. Teams like the Cleveland Browns, New York Giants or Las Vegas Raiders could trade up from early in the second round to the first round and get an extra year of team control for a quarterback they select. The fifth-year option for quarterbacks is a little overrated — if a quarterback is good he’ll want an extension long before his fifth year starts — but it’s another factor that can push quarterbacks into the first round.
The odds of three or more quarterbacks going in the first round make it seem like a very likely outcome. There are ways we could see some quarterbacks slide, however.