This is our 12-part, pick-by-pick series where I, Dan Schneier, Adam Aizer, Jacob Gibbs, Thomas Shafer and Jamey Eisenberg all took part in a six-person mock draft. We each built two of the 12 teams in this 14-round draft to demonstrate different strategies from each spot. As a reference point, all touchdowns in this league are worth six points, and we award one point for every 10 yards rushing and receiving and one point for every 25 yards passing. We also award one point for every reception. We feature a starting lineup of QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, TE and FLEX (RB/WR/TE). Below are my results from picking eleventh overall.
One of the problems I have had early this draft season is that I take too many running backs too early, and still find good running back values later. One of the solutions I have found to that problem is a late draft pick. If you are fond of pass catchers, this is one of the best years I can remember for having a late pick. In this draft Malik Nabers, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Nico Collins, Brian Thomas Jr., and A.J. Brown all fell outside of the top 10. It is not easy choosing between those guys, they are all top 10 wide receivers with top five upside. I took Nabers because of the upside he showed last year and the improved situation he has this year. Daniel Jones, Drew Lock, and Tim Boyle have been replaces by Russell Wilson, Jaxson Dart, and Jameis Winston. I have Nabers projected for 113 catches, 1,310 yards, and 8.1 touchdowns this year. There is still plenty of room for upside, especially in the area of touchdowns.
My draft from No. 11 overall:
1.11 Malik Nabers, WR, Giants
2.02 Brock Bowers, TE, Raiders
3.11 Lamar Jackson, QB, Ravens
4.02 Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR, Seahawks
5.11 D’Andre Swift, RB, Bears
6.02 David Montgomery, RB, Lions
7.11 Deebo Samuel, WR, Commanders
8.02 Travis Etienne, RB, Jaguars
9.11 Rhamondre Stevenson, RB, Patriots
10.02 Zach Charbonnet, RB, Seahawks
11.11 Romeo Doubs, WR, Packers
12.02 Cedric Tillman, WR, Browns
13.11 Wan’Dale Robinson, WR, Giants
14.02 Anthony Richardson, QB, Colts
Aside from not taking a running back until Round 5, what makes this draft most interesting is that I selected an elite tight end and an elite quarterback in the first three rounds. The obvious upside to that strategy is that you can be way ahead of the league at two positions. The downside is the risk at running back and wide receiver. I was able to mitigate the risk of running back thanks to the depth at the position this year and the fact that I dedicated five out of six picks to the position in the middle of the draft. The result is that I left this draft with my QB2, TE1, WR5, WR15, and two of the top 21 running backs in my projections.
By the time I got to Round 11 it was pretty clear that wide receiver depth was my biggest concern. I only had three at that point and one of them was Samuel, who is 29 years old and coming off the worst full season of his career. This highlights a flaw in my process. As a rule, try to find your bench wide receivers at least a round early than I started looking for mine. The part of the draft where I was taking my bench receivers is usually a better place to find handcuff running backs or upside at other positions. Doubs and Robinson should provide a decent flex floor most weeks, and Tillman flashed upside in a very limited sample size last year, but I would feel better about my WR4 if I had taken one at least one round earlier.
Before I highlight some more important individual picks, I want to talk about my last pick. If your bench is deep enough to hold him for a while Richardson has become one of my favorite late-round dart throws. While I do expect Daniel Jones to open the season as the starter for the Colts, I also expect Richardson to get at least one more shot at some point. This is a bad team and neither of these QBs have shown enough consistency in their careers to hold on to the job for 17 games. That being said, Richardson’s skillset gives him the opportunity to score 30 points any given week. If he is able to do that a couple of times in a row, his value could quickly increase more than most players available this late.
Favorite pick: D’Andre Swift
If you have been following along this summer, this won’t surprise you. Swift projects as my RB17 and there is upside beyond that. He was a low-end RB2 last year, just like he has been for most of his career, and the addition of Ben Johnson, Drew Dalman, Joe Thuney, and Jonah Joackson should make him much more efficient in 2025. The Bears are a team most people expected to add a running back this offseason, instead they used a Round 1 pick on a tight end (Coltston Loveland), and Round 2 pick on a wide receiver (Luther Burden) and didn’t draft a back until Round 7 (Kyle Monangai). This is the best setup Swift has had since he finished RB15 per game in 2022 with Johnson and the Lions.
Pick I might regret: Rhamondre Stevenson
How about pick I already regret? Honestly, Stevenson in Round 9 in not a bad value and even though I am very fond of rookie TreVeyon Henderson there is still a chance Stevenson delivers value at this cost. But as I said above, I wish I had a little more upside on my bench at wide receiver and I could have taken Luther Burden or Jayden Higgins in this spot and then taken a backup running back like Roschon Johnson or Trey Benson later in the draft. I really like how this team came together, but I would like it more with that one change. Try to get your WR4 by Round 10 is the main takeaway, you’ll find better bench running backs than bench receivers late.
Player who could make or break my team: Brock Bowers
I project Bowers for 113 catches, 1,290 yards and six touchdowns. He has the upside to score twice that. But even at my projections, he is 18 points better than Trey McBride and 61 points better than TE3 in my projections. If he meets my expectations or better this team has three legitimately elite players at three different positions and the lack of a true RB1 won’t hurt me. But many are concerned that Pete Carroll, Chip Kelly, and Ashton Jeanty will combine to form a very run-heavy offense in Las Vegas and Bowers’ 25% target share won’t be as valuable. If that happens and Bowers is TE2, or worse, this team could really be in trouble. I think the improved coaching staff and quarterback play sets Bowers up to have one of those Travis Kelce seasons that makes him worthy of a first round pick. This team will need me to be right about that, especially since I passed on Brian Thomas and A.J. Brown when I took him.