US stock market futures surge in record-breaking tsunami as S&P 500, Nasdaq hit all-time highs and Dow rallies ahead of big tech earnings and Fed decision

The US stock market opened the week on a cautious yet optimistic note as stock futures for the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq ticked higher early Tuesday. Investors are bracing for what could be one of the most influential weeks of 2025, packed with earnings from tech giants, a critical Federal Reserve decision, major economic data releases, and the looming impact of new global trade tariffs.

The S&P 500 and Nasdaq both notched fresh all-time highs, rising 0.09% and 0.29% respectively, while the Dow Jones added 0.10%, reflecting growing investor confidence. With tech titans like Apple, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft set to report results, and inflation data and Fed policy updates on deck, markets are bracing for a potential tsunami of market-shifting news.

• S&P 500 rose ~0.09%, marking another record close.
• Nasdaq Composite climbed ~0.29%, also hitting all-time highs.
• Dow Jones Industrial Average increased ~0.10%

Stock market momentum builds ahead of earnings tsunami

Last week, the stock market closed at record highs, largely driven by easing inflation signals, upbeat earnings, and a trade breakthrough between the US and the European Union. The S&P 500 surged to an all-time high, with the Nasdaq also hitting new records following strong performances from chipmakers and AI-linked tech companies.

Much of that momentum now faces a test as a flood of second-quarter earnings reports begins pouring in. More than 150 S&P 500 companies are set to report this week, including some of the most heavily weighted stocks in the index.

Among the key companies reporting are:

• Meta Platforms (Wednesday)
• Apple (Thursday)
• Microsoft (Wednesday)
• Amazon (Thursday)
• Alphabet (Google’s parent, Wednesday)
• Along with UPS, Boeing, AstraZeneca, P&G, UnitedHealth, and McDonald’s across sectors.

So far, earnings season has outperformed expectations. According to FactSet, around 80% of companies reporting have beaten Wall Street estimates, suggesting continued resilience despite rising costs and global uncertainty.

Top stock performers today (July 29, 2025)

• Sarepta Therapeutics (SRPT)
  ▪️ Surged around +35%
  ▪️ Boosted by FDA approval to resume shipments of its gene therapy drug Elevidys
• Cadence Design Systems (CDNS)
  ▪️ Gained approximately +7.6%
  ▪️ Jumped after strong Q2 earnings and raised forecast
• Tesla (TSLA)
  ▪️ Rose by +3%
  ▪️ Driven by a new $16.5 billion AI chip manufacturing deal with Samsung
• Nvidia (NVDA)
  ▪️ Up about +1.9%
  ▪️ Continued to gain on strong demand for AI and data center chips

Federal reserve meeting in focus as rate outlook drives market mood

The Federal Reserve’s July meeting concludes Wednesday, and while no rate hike is expected, investor attention is sharply focused on the central bank’s tone and guidance.
The Fed has been walking a tightrope between controlling inflation and supporting economic growth. With inflation data showing signs of cooling—particularly the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index—many analysts expect the Fed to maintain current interest rates, while possibly hinting at rate cuts later this year.

Market futures currently imply a 60–70% chance of a rate cut by September, according to CME FedWatch data. However, a hawkish tilt from Fed Chair Jerome Powell could dampen market sentiment, especially if the central bank stresses inflation risks or delays easing.

Trade tensions rise as August 1 tariff deadline approaches

Another major development weighing on the market is the August 1 deadline for the US to finalize trade agreements with several nations or impose significant new tariffs. While the US–EU deal last week helped calm investor nerves by capping tariffs at 15%, trade relations with China, India, and some Southeast Asian economies remain uncertain.

If no further deals are struck by the deadline, a wave of automatic tariffs could trigger global supply chain disruptions, potentially re-inflating prices on imports and complicating the Fed’s inflation battle. Markets are keeping a close watch on these negotiations, as unresolved tensions could reverse recent gains in equities.

Major US stock indices performance:

🔹 S&P 500 Index (SPX)

• YTD 2025 Return: +18.7%
• Recent High: Record close at 5,495
• Key Drivers: Strong tech earnings, easing inflation, global trade optimism
• Outlook: May face volatility from Fed meeting and valuation risks

🔹 Nasdaq Composite (IXIC)

• YTD 2025 Return: +27.5%
• Recent High: Record close at 18,320
• Key Drivers: AI and chip stocks, tech-led rally, retail investor surge
• Outlook: Highly sensitive to Big Tech earnings this week

🔹 Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJI)

• YTD 2025 Return: +8.9%
• Current Level: Around 41,000
• Key Drivers: UnitedHealth, Boeing, Apple weightings; earnings-driven
• Outlook: Slightly lagging due to industrial exposure but still resilient

🔹 Russell 2000 (Small caps)

• YTD 2025 Return: +5.2%
• Current Trend: Underperforming vs. large caps
• Key Drivers: Interest rate sensitivity, lack of AI exposure
• Outlook: May rally if Fed signals dovish tilt or soft landing

🔹 CBOE Volatility Index (VIX)

• Current Level: ~13.7
• Trend: Low volatility, near historic lows
• Implication: Calm ahead of potentially stormy week

Investors eye key economic data to assess market direction

Beyond earnings and the Fed, a slew of economic data is set to shape investor sentiment throughout the week. These include:

• July Consumer Confidence Index (Tuesday)
• ADP private payrolls report (Wednesday)
• Q2 GDP preliminary reading (Thursday)
• June PCE inflation data (Friday)
• July Non-Farm Payrolls (Friday)
• ISM Manufacturing PMI (Thursday)
• Consumer sentiment reports

Each data point carries the potential to shift expectations around the Fed’s next move, inflation path, and corporate profitability. Strong data could fuel optimism, but any negative surprise might invite a sharp correction.

Tech stocks and ai-focused firms lead growth optimism

Tech and AI-related stocks continue to dominate market enthusiasm in 2025. Shares of NVIDIA, Broadcom, Palantir, and AMD have all surged this month on AI demand and chip expansion.

Now, with “the Magnificent Seven”—Meta, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon, Nvidia, and Tesla—all set to report or influence market tone, their earnings performance could define the next leg of this rally. High expectations have left little room for disappointment, so even small misses could trigger outsized reactions.

Some analysts have flagged the rising concentration risk in tech-heavy indices, with the top 10 S&P 500 companies now accounting for nearly 35% of the index’s total weight—a level last seen during the dot-com bubble.

Valuation concerns linger despite strong performance

With the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting record highs, many investors are starting to question how sustainable the rally is. According to recent analysis, the S&P 500 is trading at nearly 21 times forward earnings, well above its 10-year average.

While AI growth and strong earnings help justify some of the premium, any policy missteps, earnings miss, or geopolitical shock could bring volatility. Analysts warn that investor euphoria is returning to meme stocks, small caps, and risky sectors, which may point to a frothy environment.

Market outlook for august 2025 remains cautiously optimistic

As July comes to a close, investor sentiment is cautiously optimistic. Solid earnings and easing inflation have provided a strong foundation, but the upcoming Fed meeting, tariff decisions, and economic data may act as the ultimate stress test.

Here’s what could drive the market in August:

Why this week could shape the rest of 2025

The US stock market today is treading carefully, navigating a perfect storm of earnings, macroeconomic updates, and policy decisions. For investors, staying informed and agile is critical.

Whether you’re a long-term investor or short-term trader, this week’s developments—especially the Fed’s tone, Big Tech results, and trade headlines—could determine not only the market’s direction in August but set the tone for the rest of 2025.

FAQs:

Q1: What is driving the US stock market today?
Earnings reports, Fed updates, and trade news are moving the market.

Q2: Which stocks should investors watch this week?
Apple, Amazon, Meta, Microsoft, and Boeing are key stocks to watch.