Turns out Mason Miller was the biggest loser at the trade deadline, at least for Fantasy Baseball purposes.
That’s not the way I saw it playing out when I wrote my Trade Deadline Winners and Losers article late Thursday. Miller is in the conversation for the most talented reliever in baseball, and the Padres literally gave up the farm for him in the form of shortstop prospect Leo De Vries. So why wouldn’t they have him close?
“We do have a guy in Robert Suarez who’s leading this league in saves, a two-time All-Star, and a guy who’s been fantastic for us for going on two years now,” manager Mike Shildt said after having Mason Miller make his Padres debut in the eighth inning Friday. Suarez worked the ninth for the save.
Two days later, Miller was warming up to pitch the eighth when the Padres tacked on four runs, compelling Shildt to bring in a lower-leverage arm. But then, when a save situation developed in the ninth, it was Suarez who came in and not Miller.
So is that the final word, then? Is Shildt sticking with the incumbent?
“It’s going to be fluid. We’re going to pass the ball around,” he said. “That’s how we see it as far as the closer role. There will be opportunities for [Miller] to take that role down at some point.”
A little more clarity would be nice, but even so, I think it’s an actions-speak-louder-than-words situation. Maybe Miller will get a save at some point — like, when Suarez needs a day off — but Miller isn’t a closer right now. Loyalty has been a defining trait for Shildt, and to remove Suarez from a role he hasn’t lost would be disloyal.
Rest assured, though, Suarez is on thinner ice than ever. If he has another five-run meltdown, like he’s already had twice this season, it would be all too easy for Shildt to make the switch. In leagues where saves are scarce, I’d be holding onto both Suarez and Miller.
Now, for the 10 other closer situations that are most in flux.
Note: “Pecking order” refers to rosterability in Fantasy and not necessarily who’s first in line for saves (though it’s usually one and the same).
Cade Smith, not to be confused with Cait Sith, was widely considered to be the favorite to close when Emmanuel Clase was lost to a gambling investigation, but it was Hunter Gaddis who got the first save sans Clase, doing so Saturday. And considering Gaddis was previously working the eighth inning while Smith handled the seventh, perhaps this situation isn’t as straightforward as it first appeared.
Or perhaps it is. Smith had worked an inning Wednesday and two innings Friday, both times in situations where a closer would normally be used, and was presumably unavailable. Smith still has the better numbers overall and is still the better choice to roster in Fantasy. And Clase? Well, his non-disciplinary paid leave is only through Aug. 31, so he could technically return for September, but with the report of his locker being cleared out over the weekend, it seems unlikely he’ll be back again this season. In leagues where saves are scarce, you might continue to hold, but I wouldn’t let some fleeting hope prevent me from picking up a player that I was genuinely interested in.
My suspicion when the Tigers acquired Kyle Finnegan from the Nationals was that his closing days were done since he was obviously worse than Will Vest. Sure, he had more closing experience than Vest, but A.J. Hinch is about the last manager who would be swayed by the “proven closer” label. Here was Hinch’s actual take, though:
“We’re gonna use him in a lot of different ways. He could close games. He could also be part of the path to get to the back end,” Hinch said. “He’s willing to do anything.”
That’s pretty typical from Hinch, who has long eschewed conventional bullpen roles. But actions speak louder than words, right? Well, with a tight lead against the Phillies on Saturday, it was Vest who worked the eighth inning and Finnegan who worked the ninth for a save. (Technically, Finnegan entered with two outs in the eighth because Vest had gotten into some trouble.) Vest had registered seven of the team’s previous eight saves, but now five of his past six appearances have come prior to the ninth. And while his overall numbers are much better than Finnegan’s, Finnegan debuted a new pitch mix in his Tigers debut, cutting the use of his not-so-good fastball nearly in half. Maybe it’ll make him more effective.
I still think Hinch leans more on Vest in the long run, but Finnegan’s usefulness in Fantasy may not be done.
Manager Aaron Boone ended the controversy before it started on deadline day, confirming that Devin Williams would remain the closer even following the acquisition of two other teams’ closers, David Bednar of the Pirates and Camilo Doval of the Giants. But Williams has been vulnerable all year, allowing at least one earned run in four of his past six appearances to bring his ERA back over 5.00. He’s also an impending free agent, while Bednar and Doval will remain under the Yankees‘ control for at least one more year. If he’s costing them games, they have very excuse to turn the page now.
So far, though, it’s only been Bednar and Doval costing them games — in particular, one crazy 13-12 game against the Marlins on Friday. Bednar worked part of the seventh and eighth innings and gave up two runs on four hits. Doval tried securing the save in the ninth and gave up three runs, one earned. Both still have a better ERA than Williams on the year — with Bednar especially dominating in recent months — but if they’re not quick to gain Boone’s trust, then what motive would Boone have to swap out Williams for either?
Thankfully, it looks like manager Bob Melvin is going to do the right thing here. With Camilo Doval (not to mention Tyler Rogers) being shipped out at the trade deadline, there was a closer vacancy and an obvious candidate to fill it: Randy Rodriguez, who has a 1.17 ERA, 0.85 WHIP, and 12.3 K/9 on the year. He’s emerged as a relief ace, in other words, and is exactly the kind of reliever to entrust with the ninth inning. The only complication was that Ryan Walker pulled that trick last year and entered this year as the Giants’ closer as a result, eventually losing the job to Doval. Would Melvin simply revert to him?
Evidently not. Rodriguez recorded the team’s first save sans Doval on Friday. Of course, it came in the 10th inning, with Walker working the ninth, which adds an element of uncertainty. If my read on this situation is accurate, though, then I believe Rodriguez to be the single biggest winner at the trade deadline, relief pitcher or otherwise, and might even value him over every other reliever mentioned in this article.
When David Bednar was struggling and even optioned to the minors earlier this season, it was Dennis Santana who filled in for him, so it stands to reason that Santana would replace him now that he’s gone. But Santana’s first appearance sans Bednar raised his ERA nearly a full run, from 1.36 to 2.31, as he allowed five earned runs in a dramatic loss to the Rockies on Friday. Though it wasn’t a save chance, he was tasked with the ninth inning in a four-run game, as a closer typically would be, only to fall victim to a classic Coors Field outcome, a 17-16 final. Santana would go on to pitch the ninth inning with a four-run lead again Sunday, this time escaping unscathed, and his claim to the closer role remains unchallenged for now.
But Isaac Mattson makes for an interesting alternative. The 29-year-old rookie preceded Santana in the eighth inning Sunday and looks like the Pirates’ new setup man, boasting a 2.05 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, and 10.6 K/9 on the year.
Romero was expected to get the first chance to replace the departed Ryan Helsley, as floated by president of baseball operations John Mozeliak himself, and he indeed did, albeit with one earned run allowed over 1 1/3 innings Saturday. While the left-hander has a 2.21 ERA on the year, he wouldn’t normally be a team’s first choice to close, but the Cardinals don’t have anyone better suited. Kyle Leahy preceded Romero Saturday with 1 2/3 scoreless innings.
The Twins were the most aggressive sellers at the deadline, ultimately purging their bullpen of every good arm but one: Cole Sands. With Jhoan Duran shipped to the Phillies, Griffin Jax shipped to the Rays, Louie Varland shipped to the Blue Jays, and Danny Coulombe shipped to the Rangers, Sands became the only real choice to close and was expected to do so. But in fact, both of his appearances since the trade deadline have come in the eighth inning. He did his job in both instances only to see some other reliever blow the game because, again, there’s nobody else left.
It’s why I think this situation will eventually sort itself out. Manager Rocco Baldelli may think he can get away with playing the leverage game with this reduced bullpen corps, but he’ll learn. He obviously had Sands work what he thought was the most critical spot Sunday — facing three, four, and five in the Guardians lineup — but the most critical spot will more often than not be the ninth.
Sean Newcomb’s overall numbers are lacking due to a failed stint as a starter for the Red Sox earlier this season, but he has a 2.25 ERA, 1.06 WHIP, and 9.8 K/9 since joining the Athletics as a full-time reliever. It makes the left-hander far and away the most promising choice to close following the departure of Mason Miller, but it’s not clear that manager Mark Kotsay is totally on board with this idea. He had Newcomb work the ninth inning with a four-run lead Friday — a scenario where a closer is often used, though it’s not a save chance — but then he had Newcomb work the eighth with the Athletics trailing Sunday. Right-hander Michael Kelly worked the ninth in that contest and only added to the Athletics’ deficit. His 1.35 ERA makes him a possible alternative to Newcomb, though his bat-missing skills are sorely lacking.
Jose Ferrer has been floated as a possible closer since long before Kyle Finnegan was traded to the Tigers, mostly because he brushes triple digits with his fastball. But the left-hander has fallen well short in the effectiveness department, sporting a 5.03 ERA at present, and it’s unlikely that a move to a higher-pressure role will resolve that. It’s also not clear that the Nationals are thinking along those lines. Ferrer’s only appearance since the trade deadline came in the eighth inning of a 14-3 loss Sunday. He did not pitch well, allowing two earned runs on three hits with one walk and two strikeouts. Right-hander Cole Henry isn’t any more interesting but is perhaps a little more stable.
The Orioles shipped out setup man Bryan Baker well before closer Felix Bautista was lost to a shoulder injury, and then as soon as someone else emerged as the frontrunner to replace him, he was shipped out as well — first Gregory Soto, then Seranthony Dominguez. What’s left is an assortment of nobodies that not even manager Tony Mansolino seems to know how to deploy.
The most interesting to me is Corbin Martin, who actually received and converted a save chance in the second game of a doubleheader July 29, the very day Dominguez was traded. Formerly a starting pitcher prospect in the Astros and Diamondbacks organizations, Martin has gotten more life on his fastball in a shorter relief role and has 11 strikeouts in 8 1/3 innings so far. But he was tasked with the sixth inning in the Orioles’ latest win Saturday, leaving the save chance to Keegan Akin. Curiously enough, Akin set up for Martin in the July 29 contest, where Martin got a save, so Mansolino is clearly still working this out.