The Houston Texans were the darling of 2023 when then-rookie quarterback C.J. Stroud and first-year head coach DeMeco Ryans took the league by storm, winning the AFC South and a playoff game. After a breakthrough like that, many expected the Texans to be a Super Bowl contender in 2024. They still won the division and a playoff game, but they fell in the Divisional Round. Additionally, Stroud and the offense took a notable step back, resulting in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik getting fired this offseason.
Pass protection was poor and the offense did little to counter defensive adjustments. What makes things harder for new offensive coordinator Nick Caley is the team traded left tackle Laremy Tunsil to the Commanders guard Kenyon Green to Philadelphia, giving Houston essentially an entirely new offensive line for 2025.
Stroud will also have a new cast of pass catchers. Nico Collins is back and is a star, but the team moved on from Stefon Diggs after one season before trading for Christian Kirk and selecting Iowa State teammates Jayden Higgins and Jaylin Noel on Day 2 of the draft. The team also hopes Tank Dell can return after a serious injury. The Texans open with tough games against the Rams and Buccaneers, so it’s important for Stroud and his receivers to click out of the gate. That would go a long way in the Texans being the team to beat in the AFC South for the third straight season.
We’re going to take a quick look at the Texans’ 2024 season and the rest of their offseason moves before getting into their track record in NFL futures over the last five years. After that, you can find the odds available at top sportsbooks for their 2025 win total along with Super Bowl and playoff odds as well as key player props to know. Finally, we’ll take a look at the pros and cons of betting on the Texans in 2025 and give out our best bets.
2024 Houston Texans season review
- Regular season: 10-7 (AFC South champs)
- Playoffs: Lost Divisional Round at Chiefs 23-14
- Stroud/Ryans: 3rd QB/HC duo all-time with playoff win in each of first two seasons
- 0-6 all-time in divisional round (only NFL team to never reach Conference Championship game)
- First in the NFL in opponent completion percentage (58.8) and second in INTs (19) last season
2025 Houston Texans offseason review
| QB | Case Keenum | Graham Mertz (6) | |
| RB | Nick Chubb | Woody Marks (4) | |
| WR | Stefon Diggs, Robert Woods | Christian Kirk, Justin Watson, Braxton Berrios | Jayden Higgins (2), Jaylin Noel (3) |
| TE | Teagan Quitoriano, Dalton Keene | Luke Lachey (7) | |
| OL | Laremy Tunsil, Kenyon Green, Shaq Mason, Kendrick Green | Cam Robinson, Laken Tomlinson, Jake Andrews, Ed Ingram, Trent Brown | Aireontae Ersery (2) |
| DL | Sheldon Rankins | Kyonte Hamilton (7) | |
| EDGE | Jerry Hughes | Darrell Taylor, Casey Toohill | |
| LB | Del’Shawn Phillips, Devin White, Neville Hewitt | E.J. Speed, Nick Niemann | |
| CB | Jeff Okudah, Kris Boyd, Ka’dar Hollman | Tremon Smith, Damon Arnette | Jaylin Smith (3) |
| S | Eric Murray | C.J. Gardner-Johnson | Jaylen Reed (6) |
| STAFF | Bobby Slowik (OC) | Nick Caley (OC) |
Five-year futures odds and trends
| 2024 | +1600 | 9.5 | Over | 10 | L, Divisional round |
| 2023 | +20000 | 6.5 | Over | 10 | L, Divisional round |
| 2022 | +29000 | 4.5 | Under | 3 | 4th, AFC South |
| 2021 | +30000 | 4 | Push | 4 | 3rd, AFC South |
| 2020 | +6000 | 7.5 | Under | 4 | 3rd, AFC South |
Historical betting data via Pro-Football-Reference.
2025 Houston Texans futures odds
| Go Over win total | 9.5 (+100) | 9.5 (-110) | 9.5 (+100) | 9.5 (+105) |
| Go Under win total | 9.5 (-120) | 9.5 (-110) | 9.5 (-120) | 9.5 (-125) |
| Win Super Bowl | +3500 | +3000 | +3500 | +2500 |
| Win AFC | +1500 | +1500 | +1600 | +1200 |
| Win AFC South | -105 | -105 | +110 | +115 |
| Make playoffs | -140 | -150 | -130 | -144 |
| Miss playoffs | +125 | +125 | +110 | +118 |
| Win No. 1 seed | +1200 | +1800 | +2500 | +1300 |
Odds subject to change.
2025 C.J. Stroud props
| MVP | +2500 | +2500 | +2500 | +2500 |
| Offensive POY | +8000 | +8000 | +15000 | +7500 |
| Most pass yards | +1400 | +1600 | +1400 | +1400 |
| Pass yards O/U | 3750.5 | 3725.5 | 3800.5 | 3825.5 |
| Pass TDs O/U | 21.5 | 21.5 | 21.5 | 21.5 |
Odds subject to change.
Reasons to back the Texans
The Texans have a safe floor of nine or 10 wins under Ryans, who’s 20-14 over his first two seasons. It also helps that the AFC South isn’t exactly the most loaded division in the NFL. The market is slightly fading the Texans reaching 10 wins for the third year in a row, however, as their win total is set at 9.5 across all of the top sportsbooks. Moving on from an offensive coordinator who orchestrated good if not great offenses after two years is tough, and Caley comes to Houston after the Rams were 10th in net yards per pass attempt in 2024, which was much better than the Texans finishing 26th in that category. Houston’s receiving depth is also much improved even with Diggs now in New England and he and Dell missed 12 combined games last season.
Additionally, you can make the case that Houston’s defense is underrated after finishing 14th in scoring in 2024. That unit didn’t allow more than 209 net passing yards in any of their first nine games last year despite facing teams like the Bills, Packers and Vikings in that stretch, in particular allowing Josh Allen to complete just nine passes in a Houston win. The defense surrendered just 212 yards in total in the Divisional Round loss to the Chiefs. Just one new starter joins the fold in veteran safety C.J. Gardner-Johnson, and with a pair of elite edge rushers up front, it’s not out of the question for this unit to make a run at being the best in football.
Reasons to fade the Texans
The turnover along the offensive line may be too much for the Texans to overcome. There are no standout players at any of the five starting spots unless someone takes a major leap this season. Cam Robinson was brought in to play left tackle, and he’s been graded by PFF as around league average in his best season. That’s a big downgrade from Tunsil on an offensive line that can’t afford downgrades. While Caley brings coaching experience in the Sean McVay offense to Houston, prior to 2024 he had only served as a tight ends coach in L.A. and New England, so it’s unclear how much upside he has to make the most out of a bad situation up front.
The AFC South has the potential to be better than it has been the last few years as well, which would give Houston a tougher time banking divisional wins. Houston’s three divisional rivals won 15 games last year, but their win totals are collectively set at 20.5 with Cam Ward and Travis Hunter joining the party. The Texans were a dead even team in point differential last year, which works out to 8.5 projected wins based on their scoring, and with tougher competition, it’s not too difficult for this team to slip to the 7-8 win range.
How to bet the Texans in 2025
- Under 9.5 wins -120 (BetMGM)
- C.J. Stroud Under 3,825.5 passing yards -114 (FanDuel)
The perception is that the Texans play in an easy division and should have a lot of bankable wins, but the competition should be tougher from the Jaguars and Titans at least this year, and with Houston playing a first-place schedule plus the NFC West and AFC West, there are relatively few pushovers for them this year. The talent on the roster combined with an excellent head coach could still prevail, but I have a hard time seeing them improve from their 10-win seasons of the last two years in these circumstances and think it’s likelier than the implied odds on -120 that they start slow offensively and fall short of the mark.
I also like backing Stroud’s Under on his passing yards total of 3,825.5 at FanDuel, which would mean he has to average no more than 225 yards per game if he plays all 17. I expect that will be a difficult task behind this offensive line, and even if he does manage it, he had just 219.2 yards per game last year to fall short of this mark. Now, if the performance he had as a rookie comes back, he could miss three games and potentially beat this number, but I think that’s a tall task with how the team is set up around Stroud while playing with a new OC who has just one year of experience beyond coaching a position group.