Will Pahalgam massacre undermine movement for independent Kashmir, isolate Pakistan? Paradigm shift in Jammu and Kashmir?

Home Minister Amit Shah in Pahalgam after terrorist attack

Will the Pahalgam terrorist attack, in which 26 people, mostly tourists, were killed, prove to be a major setback to the cause of an independent Kashmir? Will it alienate the moderate voices and isolate Pakistan, which has been accused of aiding and abetting the violence in the Kashmir Valley? Will Jammu and Kashmir move in a new direction where violence will be abhorred, and the local people will come in open as they have done after the massacre, to defend what they call “Kashmiriyat”? What is the way forward for the people for whom the disgruntled youths claim to have been fighting a war for decades?

Paradigm shift to Kashmir question?

There may be a paradigm shift to the Kashmir question. The cause of an independent Kashmir has been a long-standing aspiration for some people in Kashmir, particularly in the Kashmir Valley. An opinion poll held in 2007 showed that about 87% of the residents supported an independent Kashmir, distinct from both Indian and Pakistani control. However, after the Pahalgam massacre, it may change with more people finding it difficult to defend the attack on innocent civilians, and that too for not being Muslim. 

Will militants lose sympathy?

The latest attack may erode the sympathy for the militants. The people with a moderate opinion may not back The Resistance Front, the terrorist outfit that has caused mayhem in Baisaran meadow. It can be understood by the fact that Mirwaiz Omar Farooque of the Hurriyat Conference has condemned the attack. Besides, thousands of the common people have come out on the streets across the state, including the Muslim-dominated areas of the valley, to protest against the attack. It has happened for the first time in the last three decades. Protests against killings have been held also in Southern Kashmir, considered to be a hotbed of militancy. 

Will TRF narratives be exposed?

The TRF narrative that the victims of the attack were linked to the Indian security forces has been proved false. Indian Navy officer Vinay Narwal was the only victim with such a background, and he too was on a vacation and personal leave with his wife. The TRF will find it almost impossible to defend the killing of ponywallah Syed Adil Hussain Shah, a local Kashmiri Muslim. Those who talk of the alleged atrocities on Kashmiris can not justify the dastardly murder of the poor man, who earned his livelihood by ferrying the tourists on his pony. 

Will Pakistan be isolated on Kashmir issue?

Pakistan will soon be cornered by the international community, which has already condemned the attack and offered help to India. The country that has been advocating the Kashmiri cause with the argument that the people should have the right to self-determination will be forced to keep the issue on the backburner, at least for some time. 

Will Hurriyat Conference split?

The movement for a separate Kashmir will get a severe blow with a widening chasm between the Pakistan-based terrorist outfits like Lashkar-e-Toiba, Hizbul Mujahideen, or Jaish-e-Muhammad and moderate fronts like the Hurriyat Conference. Hurriyat Conference too may get split at the middle on this issue, with Omar Farooque distancing himself from the terrorists. The 26-member bloc may find it difficult to defend the cold-blooded murder of innocent civilians. 

The terrorists have succeeded in bringing the question of Kashmir back to the international forum. Due to deepening financial troubles, political instability, and internal challenges like Balochistan, the Pakistani deep state and its army have not been pressing the issue vigorously. The TRF has tossed the contention issue of Jammu and Kashmir back to the world stage. India may come under pressure to hold talks with the Kashmiri people, if not the militants, and find a solution to the problem.