Arch Manning enters the 2025 season with fanfare that I really don’t feel the need to reiterate here. Manning is the last name. Yes. That family of Mannings. Yes, he’s named Arch because … you get it.
Laying it out as bare as possible: A quarterback with fewer than 100 career passing attempts in college enters the season aboard a rocket ship of hype and discussion about how good he is and how his future will unfold. Not only for the next year or so, at least, in Austin, Texas, but for the years beyond that wherever his landing spot may be at the next level.
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While I hate to spoil my own article, what Arch Manning displayed over two and a half games of extended playing time in 2024 has all the indicative arrows pointing to a blue-chip quarterback prospect for the NFL. So this is not about will he be an NFL quarterback, but when, as there’s some thinking that Manning may return to school for further polishing no matter how high his stock rises.
I wanted to focus on what Arch Manning is as a prospect going into the 2025 season, what he did show in 2024, and why exactly I’m thinking that the hype train is just only leaving the station.
First and foremost, Arch Manning’s traits are NFL-caliber
The NFL is forever and always going to be a traits-driven league. Even at quarterback. And Arch Manning is, first and foremost, a superb athlete. His twitchiness, flexibility, ability to ad-lib and win with his legs are more akin to his father Cooper (a former wide receiver) and playmaking grandfather (and namesake) Archie than either of his uncles, Peyton and Eli.
Manning is a real threat as a scrambler and on designed runs, with the size and strength (listed 6-foot-4, 225 pounds) to pull away from defenders’ grabs in the pocket. He’s a tough and competitive runner, too.
But it’s his accuracy and aggressiveness as a thrower when on the move that really stand out. Even when working to his left, he is able to access all parts of the field and deliver the ball effectively. He shows creativity as a thrower, too. While he has repeatable and consistent mechanics, Manning is able to change arm slots to throw around incoming defenders, making even more throws available to him in less-than-ideal circumstances.
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That accuracy, athleticism and aggressiveness carry over to his work from the pocket; Manning constantly, and promptly, finds a throwing position. His ability to stay balanced is a true standout trait. He has tidy footwork that lets him finish his dropback quickly and get the ball out of his hands in a hurry. He has been around a lot of football and it shows. His clean footwork impresses and he can quickly get himself into a position ready to fire the football, even when having to flip his hips on a play action concept.
The ball comes out of Manning’s hand nicely, too. His arm strength sits firmly at a plus-level. He can drive the ball over the middle of the field on dig routes and over routes with some real zip, and he is more than happy to fire those throws in, too. He also throws a beautiful deep ball — you could almost say it’s like an arch (I’m so sorry) — that he’s more than willing to launch whenever the opportunity is there. Even with pressure coming at him.
Arch Manning is aggressive in all the right ways
Manning is definitely aggressive. And I mean that in the most complimentary way, because it’s a lot of fun to watch and a big part of his game. Texas used a lot of play-action concepts with classic post and over route combinations, and with Texas’ talented receivers stretching the field against overmatched competition, if Manning saw even a sliver of opportunity for a big play, he was going to take it.
His target heat map (below) featured a healthy chunk of throws over the middle and down the field.
(Via TruMedia)
That aggressiveness will surely lead to a turnover or two when a safer option may have been available, especially against more difficult competition when the windows and space close faster. But explosive plays are the name of the game, and Manning’s willingness to unpin the grenade and launch something deep or to try to throw a covered receiver open are positive qualities that translate to the next level. It’s that keenness to launch the football, even if it might raise his coach’s blood pressure, and ability to bounce back from mistakes that make you think of his uncle Eli.
Manning isn’t blindly throwing these passes. He is just selecting the downfield option on concepts at a higher rate than you’d typically see from a young quarterback. He is able to throw deep with accuracy while giving his receiver space to make the play because he throws the ball early and with confidence. He sees what coaches call the “alert” route (as in, alert to throw this ball when it’s open) and pressing the big red button repeatedly.
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Even when he had to come off the big play (or biggest play), Manning showed the ability to work through concepts when his first read was covered. And the ball was often going to the right target based on the look. It wasn’t always perfect, and he sometimes would take a half-tick extra of a second to get there, but you can see an understanding of the concept despite being a redshirt freshman and playing so few snaps.
Experience is lacking for Arch Manning, especially vs. good defenses
Manning showed a little bit of everything, but he still needs more experience. He made mistakes early in his starts or after entering the game against UTSA.
Early in his games, he would take that extra half-second to confirm a player was open before delivering the ball. And he had other early errors that reflected his inexperience. He took a sack after a zone blitz look froze him against UTSA, and had a bad interception in his first start against Louisiana-Monroe despite every ounce of his being telling him not to throw the ball to his very covered receiver.
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The positive spin on those mistakes is that Manning never repeated them. He showed off the ability to progress on plays when needed (and Texas head coach Steve Sarkisian gets a great amount of credit for popping players open with his offensive designs, too). But as the games went on, especially during his two starts against ULM and Mississippi State, you saw him growing more confident with how quickly he was delivering the football. And how quickly he was getting rid of it, too.
Manning, like every young quarterback, will still need to improve on his total understanding of the offense. But the early signs are promising. He has traits and an advanced polish to his game. His eyes never went side-to-side desperately searching for an answer. Most blitz looks he would find a quick answer against (or stay calm in his protection). He has a good feel in the pocket already, with a willingness to step up in the pocket and into throws and incoming pass rushers if needed.
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After hunting a big play early against Mississippi State, missing a checkdown, and then taking a sack, he ended up finding the safety valve promptly the rest of the game when he needed to. Manning already shows a proper sense of timing in his head of when to keep working through his reads and when to enter creation mode. His propensity to find throws down the field doesn’t just come from guessing, it shows an understanding of where the defense is most vulnerable and getting the ball out early enough before they can recover.
It must also be noted that UTSA, ULM, and Mississippi State finished with poor defenses in 2024 (92nd, 95th and 110th, respectively, in defensive FEI rankings). But it was encouraging to see Manning not only look respectable in his first extended action, but actually stand out as well. Either way, playing in the SEC and opening up against the defending national champion Ohio State will make sure that there will be no question about the strength of defenses Manning plays against this season.
Why Arch Manning wasn’t on my too-early top 25 big board for 2026
I ended up not listing Manning on my too-early top 25 for 2026 big board because of the real questions about whether he is going to even declare himself for the 2026 draft. But if he were listed, he would firmly be in the top 10 and jockeying with Indiana’s Fernando Mendoza, South Carolina’s LaNorris Sellers and LSU’s Garrett Nussmeier for pole position as the top quarterback prospect for me.
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I am bullish on how Manning will look this season, which isn’t the craziest statement in the world to say given his recruiting. But my optimism is coming from what he showed on the field last season as opposed to any previous accolades or namesake. It’s very early (remember, 90 pass attempts last year!), but as Manning gets more and more playing time under his belt under Sarkisian, keeps learning from mistakes, and those early-game blemishes become even more infrequent, Manning is a real-deal blue-chip prospect with the size, traits and play style to be a difference-maker and franchise leader for whatever NFL team selects him.
It might be two years until we finally hear his name selected. But until then: Buy the hype.