Patience is a virtue, but it’s not often exercised in today’s NFL. Rookie quarterbacks are expected to make an impact early … or else. Salary caps are managed — often ruthlessly — depending on which veterans are meeting financial standards at this moment. It’s a cold and calculated business, professional football, and as a result, many players don’t get second chances to prove their worth, at least with their initial teams.
There are exceptions, of course: Big names like Baker Mayfield and Jared Goff are among recent early draft picks who overcame struggles to rewrite their NFL stories, though even those two experienced quick changes in teams. So which notable players could be next to shed — or fall victim to — the loathsome label of “draft bust”?
We reviewed first-round picks of the last five drafts, identifying nine veterans under the most pressure to finally live up to draft-day expectations with their current — and original — teams going into 2025. Among the picks: three different quarterbacks who are still looking to confirm themselves as “franchise-caliber” under center.
Technically speaking, Lawrence has all the Jacksonville Jaguars‘ trust, inking a massive $275 million contract extension prior to 2024. He’s already on his third head coach, however, which speaks as much to his uneven growth as the team’s greater dysfunction. The tools are there, but Lawrence enters 2025 as the league’s leader in turnovers (68) since he stepped onto an NFL field. After also missing seven games in 2024, he’s got to prove both his availability and reliability under new play-caller Liam Coen.
- Why he will bust: The Jaguars’ offensive line remains a work in progress, and Coen, the man running the whole show, has been more tantalizing than stable; he didn’t remain at any of his last five jobs for more than a single season.
- Why he won’t: The physical tools are undeniable, and he’s shown before (2022) he can approach top-10 heights. Better yet, he’s got one of the NFL’s most promising pass-catching duos in Brian Thomas Jr. and Travis Hunter.
- Our prediction: Won’t bust
When Young was picked over C.J. Stroud atop the 2023 class, few batted an eye. When Young was benched early in Year 2 under new head coach Dave Canales, many wondered if he’d already lost his chance to be the face of the Carolina Panthers. One thing’s for sure: We still don’t know where this story is going. The small but even-keeled Alabama product seemed to rediscover confidence as he closed 2024, but he’s barely completed 60% of his throws after almost 30 starts. Can he be more than just serviceable?
- Why he will bust: The historically small frame leaves him at a perpetual disadvantage playing in the pocket, even his best NFL games haven’t included major passing workloads, and the Panthers’ offensive support is still quite questionable.
- Why he won’t: His head and heart are in the right place, bringing a lot more confidence and composure than you’d expect from a kid whose first NFL coach was fired after 11 games. And he’s won meaningful games at other levels.
- Our prediction: Will bust
Everyone anticipated Richardson might need time to develop into an NFL-caliber arm after making just 13 erratic starts at the college level. After two seasons with the Indianapolis Colts, however, the supersized Florida product has already lost the starting gig multiple times, either due to lingering injuries or untimely inaccuracy. He’s a rare physical specimen, but the Colts signaled their concern about both his durability and decision-making by adding veteran Daniel Jones on a not-so-cheap deal as QB1 competition.
- Why he will bust: Two years in, he’s only managed to suit up for 15 games, and his most notable moment may have been when he checked himself out of the lineup. Completing barely 50% of his throws is also a problem.
- Why he won’t: His arm talent and supersized elusiveness are still top-tier traits, and coach Shane Steichen has maximized dual-threat quarterbacks before (see: Jalen Hurts). The Jones competition should also motivate him.
- Our prediction: Will bust
As you can see, the Jaguars are on trial in 2025. Etienne arrived 24 picks after Lawrence back in 2021, and his career has been equally volatile. A foot injury wiped out his entire rookie campaign, and while he rebounded excellently with a multipurpose 2022 breakout (1,400-plus total yards), the former Clemson star has averaged just 3.75 yards per carry since then. Counterpart Tank Bigsby was far more efficient the last time both backs saw the field, hence plenty of trade rumors regarding Etienne ahead of a contract year.
- Why he will bust: Opportunities figure to remain inconsistent with Bigsby in tow as a younger alternative.
- Why he won’t: Expectations are lowered, and the Jaguars’ improved receiving corps should help open up rushing lanes.
- Our prediction: Will bust
The minute the Tennessee Titans made Burks their first-round pick, the Arkansas product faced unfair expectations, literally entering with the selection acquired in the club’s trade of star wide receiver A.J. Brown to the Philadelphia Eagles. Things have only gone downhill since then, with Burks missing a combined 25 games due to various injuries, including a torn ACL, over his first three seasons. His best bet for 2025 is quietly building chemistry with new quarterback Cam Ward as the team’s No. 3 pass catcher.
- Why he will bust: There’s hardly a role for him anymore, with Tyler Lockett added as a Calvin Ridley complement.
- Why he won’t: Both Ridley and Lockett are over 30, and Ward could be a major upgrade distributing the rock.
- Our prediction: Will bust
In many ways, Neal has been the face of the New York Giants‘ mostly porous offensive front since his arrival from Alabama, which initially brought plenty of promise. Injuries have torched his year-to-year availability, limiting him to 27 starts in his first three seasons, but he also made waves with frustrated fans in 2023 by suggesting he was above criticism. Neal apologized later, but his switch from tackle to guard ahead of 2025 indicates he’s on his last opportunity to help Big Blue turn things around in the trenches.
- Why he will bust: He’s not even guaranteed a starting gig while competing with veteran Greg Van Roten at guard.
- Why he won’t: He was a promising starting right tackle before; you don’t just lose that degree of NFL traits up front.
- Our prediction: Won’t bust
Tabbed the New Orleans Saints‘ left tackle of the future upon entry, Penning played just six games as a rookie due to injury, then lost his starting job halfway through Year 2. The Northern Iowa-bred blocker finally stayed in the lineup in 2024 as the right tackle, but even then, he was dinged for 11 penalties for a mostly dismal and injury-riddled offense. Like Neal in New York, he’s banking on a switch to the interior to revive his long-term chances in the Big Easy, shifting to left guard next to rookie Kelvin Banks Jr.
- Why he will bust: The Saints are set to start a rookie quarterback and left tackle; he could face extra heat on the inside.
- Why he won’t: Banks Jr. projects as a solid linemate, and Penning could be a mauler with his size at left guard.
- Our prediction: Won’t bust
Four years after Clelin Ferrell joined the Raiders as the would-be face of the pass rush, Wilson arrived as a potential corrective. Yet so far, unfortunately, he’s followed suit, mustering just eight sacks in four official starts over his first two NFL seasons. The ex-Texas Tech standout has publicly acknowledged he’s entering something of a make-or-break campaign opposite Maxx Crosby, despite improving some other marks, like quarterback hits, in his second year. New head coach Pete Carroll could be just the man to help unlock him.
- Why he will bust: Malcolm Koonce could retain a much larger role opposite Crosby, keeping Wilson on the bench.
- Why he won’t: He quietly grew as a second-year player, and Carroll’s entry should bode well for the front’s rotation.
- Our prediction: Won’t bust
Van Ness felt destined for the Green Bay Packers even before he landed in Lambeau, coming out of Iowa with a background in hockey, but he’s been more of an intriguing Midwestern story than a difference-making pass rusher so far. Nicknamed “Hercules” in college, he’s yet to make his first official NFL start, managing seven total sacks since 2023 as part of the club’s edge rotation. Coach Matt LaFleur indicated this summer Van Ness could also be deployed as an interior defender to help spark his impact.
- Why he will bust: LaFleur’s toying with his position suggests Van Ness doesn’t fit ideally into any one spot.
- Why he won’t: The Packers’ entire defense is on the rise, and another offseason in Jeff Hafley’s system could be key.
- Our prediction: Will bust