College basketball free agency has arrived, and it can make-or-break the season for some of the best programs in the sport. The groundwork for Florida’s 2025 men’s national championship was laid in the days following their first-round loss in the 2024 tournament, when the Gators were able to retain their top players in the portal while adding Alijah Martin from Florida Atlantic and Rueben Chinyelu from Washington State.
Success in the portal isn’t just about landing talent — it’s also about keeping the pariahs away from the players you helped develop. Even Florida learned this lesson the hard way this offseason when it saw Denzel Aberdeen, who was in line to start this upcoming season, transfer to conference rival Kentucky for a bigger NIL bag right after a national championship season.
The transfer portal is now closed, and rosters around the country are starting to round into shape. Here are our biggest winners and losers from the college basketball offseason so far.
Winner: Michigan
Michigan’s haul is impressive enough that it’s still a winner even if the crown jewel of its class — former UAB big man Yaxel Lendeborg — decides to enter the 2025 NBA Draft. Lendeborg will be one of the best players in college basketball next year if he doesn’t like what he hears from pro scouts as a skilled and athletic two-way forward. Even without him, Michigan can still count on Illinois transfer Morez Johnson providing interior scoring, UCLA transfer Aday Mara adding passing, shot-blocking, and incredible size at 7’3, and North Carolina transfer Elliott Cadeau adding playmaking. Michigan also did well to get back Roddy Gayle Jr., who really came on at the end of last year. Danny Wolf and Vlad Goldin might be gone, but Michigan can be even better than they were this past season when they ran to the Sweet 16.
Winner: St. John’s
St. John’s had an amazing season before becoming the biggest disappointment of the 2025 NCAA tournament as the only top-two seed to lose in the first weekend. Rick Pitino is the oldest coach in college hoops as he readies to turn 73, and he reloaded to give himself another shot at glory. The Johnnies added a pair of dynamic shot-making guards in Ian Jackson from North Carolina and Joson Sosan from Arizona State. The front court got a major boost from 6’9 pogo stick Dillon Mitchell, who comes over after time at Texas and Cincinnati. Oziyah Sellers is a pure shooter for a team that had no shooting last year. The Red Storm’s best move was keeping starting center Zuby Ejiofor on campus. Pitino’s team lost RJ Luis, but they don’t seem too upset about it. St. John’s should again be very good defensively with way more offensive upside than they had last year.
Winner: Iowa
Iowa hired Drake coach Ben McCollum shortly after he won an NCAA tournament game with the in-state mid-major. McCollum immediately convinced his superstar Bennett Stirtz to join him, giving the Hawkeyes one of the best guards in the country. Iowa struck gold again by getting Alvaro Folgueiras from Robert Morris. The 6’9 Spanish forward hit 41 percent of his three-pointers as a sophomore last year, and provides secondary scoring and floor spacing for Stirtz’s drives. Kansas State transfer Brendan Hausen was another impressive get as a 6’4 movement shooter who can make it rain from deep with volume and accuracy (38.8 percent last season). McCollum brought in four other members from his Drake team, giving Iowa enough depth and experience around the Stirtz-Folgueiras pairing to push for an NCAA tournament bid.
Winner: Kentucky
Initial estimates said Kentucky had about $12 million to spend in the transfer portal, but recent reports put that number somewhere around $20 million. Head coach Mark Pope put his resources to good use. Pope landed the top long-term NBA prospect in the portal in former Arizona State center Jayden Quaintance, a mobile big man who can block shots at an elite rate and has more offensive ability than he showed as a freshman. Kam Williams, a 3-and-D wing via Tulane, will also catch the NBA’s eye after his standout freshman season. The guards are talented and experienced too with Denzel Aberdeen coming over from Florida and Jaland Lowe committing from Pitt. Throw in athletic 6’8 forward Mouhamed Dioubate, who just had a solid freshman year at Alabama, and Kentucky has all the pieces for a Final Four run if their guard play steps up.
Winner: Louisville
Louisville’s Pat Kelsey wasted no time identifying the players he wanted early in the offseason. Adrian Wooley was an inspired target after the 6’6 wing emerged as the country’s best mid-major freshman last year. His combination of driving and shooting should level up well in the ACC, and if he replicates his numbers with the Cardinals it wouldn’t be a surprise to see him as a 2026 NBA draft pick. Ryan Conwell is a proven bucket-getter, and it’s impressive that Louisville was able to win the bidding war for him. The former Xavier guard is an excellent high-volume shooter with deep range. Kelsey got another shooter in Isaac McKneely from Virginia. The Cardinals had already landed a commitment from five-star incoming freshman Mikal Brown, whose speedy shot-creation and panoramic facilitating should make him an instant impact true frosh. Losing big man James Scott hurts, but Louisville has the pieces to make the tournament again, and this time win a couple games.
Loser: Indiana
Indiana moved quickly to hire head coach Darian DeVries away from West Virginia, and he’s already brought in nine players through the transfer portal. While the depth of the Hoosiers’ class is impressive, I’m not sold on the high end talent. DeVries’ son Tucker is a fantastic get as a 6’7 scorer who can make it rain from three. He’s going to have to be an All-Big Ten performer coming off a shoulder injury for this team to make the tournament, and he has the talent to do that. Indiana’s other gets are mostly from low- and mid-major schools. Reed Bailey comes over from Davidson as a 6’10 forward whose inside-out game helped him average 18.8 points per game this past season. Lamar Wilkerson was a 20 point per game scorer at Sam Houston on 44.5 percent three-point shooting. Nick Dorn is a nice get from Elon, too. 247 Sports has Indiana as a top-10 portal class, but I worry about their lack of athleticism and front court size. Feel free to throw this one in my face if I’m wrong, Hoosiers fans.
Loser: Baylor
Baylor is one of the most consistent programs in the country under Scott Drew, and they could absolutely still win a lot of games this year. It just feels like the Bears lost more talent than they gained. Losing point guard Robert Wright II to a big offer from BYU is particularly damaging because Baylor thought they had an agreement to get him back. Michael Rataj is the most interesting addition as a 6’9 forward from Oregon State who can finish strong inside, and has some passing and shooting skills. Wyoming transfer Obi Agbim could also step into a big role as a scoring guard who drained 80 threes at a 43.7 percent clip as a freshman. Don’t be surprised if Baylor adds one more big name before next season, but for now this roster feels less talented than Drew’s usual teams.
Loser: North Carolina
North Carolina brought in some really good players, but it doesn’t feel like Hubert Davis has done quite enough in a make-or-break year. Henri Veesaar is a phenomenal grab as perhaps the best true center in the portal this year. Veesaar’s breakout sophomore season at Arizona was impressive enough to land him on our top-50 March Madness players list, and he will be a welcome addition to what was a thin Tar Heels front court. I’ve always liked Jarin Stevenson as a big forward from Alabama, but he lost his spot in a deep Tide rotation last year. Kyan Evans comes over from Colorado State with a ton of pressure on his shoulders to star at point guard. After losing Jackson, Cadeau, Jalen Washington, and others, I’m just not sure UNC upgraded its roster much from a pretty mediocre team last year.
Loser: Arizona State
Arizona State had talent last year, but the pieces were too young and never really fit on the way to a 13-20 season. It’s hard to see how Bob Hurley is going to do better this year after losing Quaintance to Kentucky and Sosan to St. John’s, among others. Former Cal State Northridge wing Marcus Adams Jr. could be a big-time piece on the wing as a 6’8 shooter, and 6’1 guard Maurice Odum is a solid get from Pepperdine. Still, Arizona State lost way more talent than it gained, and that’s not a good sign for a team that is coming off a terrible season.
Wildcard: USC
Eric Musselman’s first season at USC was a bust with a 17-18 overall record, but he’s come up with the funds in the transfer portal to potentially construct a winner for next season. USC paid former Maryland sharpshooter Rodney Rice to add volume three-point marksmanship on the wing at the reported cost of $3 million. Getting Chad Baker-Mazara from Auburn is an even bigger boon given his Final Four experience. Baker-Mazara is somehow eligible despite turning 26 years old next season, but his 3-and-D skill set will be valuable if he can contain his emotions. Former Virginia big man Jacob Cofie was another gem in the portal as a 6’10 big man who was hyper-efficient on both ends of the floor last year. The Trojans also lost some big-time talent with Desmond Claude entering the portal and Wesley Yates III committing to Washington, but in general I like their additions. Let’s just hope incoming freshman Alijah Arenas is okay after his terrifying car accident.