Beijing/Ankara/New Delhi: Last year, Erdogan formally pitched Turkey’s entry into BRICS – a bloc seen as the Global South’s answer to the G7. It was a stunning move for a NATO member. Many were shocked. Western observers called it posturing. But Erdogan meant every word. He had spoken openly, again and again, of his desire to bring Turkey into BRICS. Now, that door is all but shut.
A senior Brazilian diplomat has revealed what Ankara had long feared but would not admit publicly: “China and India privately opposed Turkey’s full BRICS membership last year.”
Both countries, he said, raised objections behind closed doors. No vetoes, no press statements. Just silence and quiet rejection.
For BRICS, unanimity is non-negotiable. One objection is enough to keep a country out. India never formally blocked Turkey’s entry, but the signals were clear. New Delhi has long viewed Ankara with suspicion, especially over its repeated support for Pakistan on the Kashmir issue.
Then came the final straw.
In May this year, when tensions flared between India and Pakistan, Turkey openly backed Islamabad. Indian officials saw it as interference. The trust, if any existed, was broken.
Turkey’s Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan still showed up at the BRICS summit in Brazil this year. But Erdogan stayed away. The message was clear. No seat at the table. No invitation to join. No illusions anymore.
Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa – these are the founding five. Last year, BRICS added five more – Argentina, Egypt, Ethiopia, Iran and the UAE. That expansion closed the gates for now.
Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov had warned in 2023, “BRICS is not looking at another round of expansion after this.”
Even Lavrov’s offer to include Turkey in a separate list of “partner countries” was seen as consolation, not inclusion.
The Erdogan problem runs deeper than Kashmir. For India, Turkey has sided too often with its enemies. For China, the trouble lies in unpredictability. Erdogan switches positions frequently. In one breath, he denounces the West. In the next, he tries to rebuild ties with NATO.
“Erdogan cannot be trusted. He is actively reviving the Ottoman Empire theme, trying to expand Turkish influence across Europe, the Caucasus and the Arab world. He competes with Saudi Arabia and Iran. His ambitions unsettle everyone,” says Dr. Manan Dwivedi, professor at the Indian Institute of Public Administration.
Add to that Turkey’s fragile relationship with Washington. With U.S. President Donald Trump eyeing a comeback, Ankara’s balancing act looks even riskier. Trump has called BRICS an “anti-American bloc” and has threatened massive tariffs if it ever launches a joint currency.
For Erdogan, that means walking a tightrope. Courting BRICS could alienate Trump. Angering him could hurt Turkey’s economy. Either way, the BRICS dream is turning into a diplomatic nightmare.
The verdict from New Delhi and Beijing is now set in stone. BRICS is off-limits. Ankara is out. Erdogan’s empire fantasy just hit a wall.
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