Many Vikings fans are excited about the 2025 season after an aggressive offseason. But not everyone in the NFL world shares that enthusiasm.
ESPN’s Mike Clay shared his projected stat line for every starter on the Vikings’ roster, and he believes the team is set for a significant regression with J.J. McCarthy replacing Sam Darnold.
Clay has the Vikings winning 8.6 games, which would likely leave them out of the playoffs. That in itself may be disappointing, but McCarthy’s development will be the most important part of the 2025 season.
Like many first-time quarterbacks, Clay is projecting an up-and-down season for the young signal-caller. Clay is projecting McCarthy to complete 347/537 passes for 3,705 yards and 26 touchdowns. Unfortunately, Clay is also projecting McCarthy to toss 14 interceptions, the highest in the league.
Clay’s projections also list a few other notable nuggets from the predictions:
- Newly-acquired defensive tackle Javon Hargrave will have 5.5 sacks, providing an improved interior pass-rush
- Jordan Mason will almost have an even split with Aaron Jones, carrying only 24 fewer times
- Dallas Turner is projected to have 3.6 sacks, an insignificant jump from his 3.0-sack rookie season
- No defensive player with double-digit sacks. Jonathan Greenard leads with 9.2 sacks
- T.J. Hockenson’s 111 targets rank second on the team, showing a return to his pre-ACL injury
Of course, these projections hinge on the inconsistency of a typical first-time starting quarterback. However, if McCarthy can perform at a level on par with a typical Kevin O’Connell quarterback, the Vikings can exceed expectations in 2025, much like they did in 2024 with Darnold. That could help the Vikings push past the Wild Card round for the first time under O’Connell.