Now that was a fun trade deadline. We didn’t have a ton of superstars swapping teams this time around, but there were plenty of big names moved around the league. We broke it all down on the Fantasy Baseball Today podcast Thursday night, and if you want even more, Scott White and I combined to write nearly 7,000 words on every relevant move in our Trade Deadline Tracker column, which you can read here. We wrote about 29 trades in there, so you’ll find everything you need to know about the deadline there.
And Scott has even more for you with his biggest winners and losers column here, which won’t necessarily touch on every player who was traded. Not even close. In fact, some of the players he writes about in there weren’t even traded – like Randy Rodriguez, who figures to step in as the Giants closer after Camilo Doval was traded to the Yankees and might just be the biggest winner of the trade deadline from a Fantasy perspective.
Check out Scott’s Winners and Losers column here to see who else’s value changed the most at the deadline, and in the rest of today’s newsletter, we’ve got more on the fallout from the deadline, especially in bullpens around MLB. Nearly half of the league could have a new closer in the wake of the deadline, with some of the best relievers in baseball finding new teams – although notably, with several not necessarily landing in spots where they will continue to be closers. So, we’ll be focusing on that reshuffling in today’s newsletter.
But first, I’ve got five random thoughts about the deadline, some Fantasy-related, some not, and we’ll go through the rest of the news you need to know about from a busy day around MLB.
Five random trade deadline thoughts
A.J. Preller is a madman (and I love it)
I have a half-baked theory that the reason Preller is so ludicrously aggressive with his prospect promotions is because he knows how heavily teams weigh age-adjusted production in their internal models when valuing players in trades. So, he gives every top prospect an overly aggressive promotion schedule to goose their value for what he really wants, which is to trade them. I don’t actually know if I believe this theory, but I find it entertaining, just like I find Preller entertaining. Hug your prospects? Preller will hug them and whisper “goodbye” before sending them out the door for impact players, and it’s worked out pretty well for him. The Padres might never get over the hump, but you can never accuse them of not going for it. I respect that. He bolstered his rotation with JP Sears and Nestor Cortes providing some depth, adding the best reliever on the market, and filled the biggest holes in his lineup by adding Freddy Fermin, Ryan O’Hearn, and Ramon Laureano. The Padres might have a top-five roster in baseball right now. Worry about 2029 in 2028, you know?
Craig Breslow is totally in over his head
This was already clear with how he handled the whole Rafael Devers situation, but the Dustin May trade was one of the most baffling decisions I can ever remember a team making. May is already up to 104 innings this season, more than he had thrown from 2022 through 2024 combined, and the Dodgers had recently moved him to the bullpen to try to preserve his arm for the rest of the season. So, of course, the Red Sox traded the biggest piece from the Devers trade, James Tibbs, for May. Now, you might be thinking this is a move for the future, but May is a free agent at the end of this season — when you’re on the IL, you still accrue service time, as it turns out. They traded a 2024 first-rounder, one of the centerpieces of the Devers trade, for an oft-injured starter with a high-4.00s ERA who can walk in free agency in two months. Breslow’s justification? “Where our rotation has gone, we’ve followed,” he told reporters, “Dustin fits into that group.” “Word salad” doesn’t do that justice, because salads are at least nutritious. Someone get this man an “At least you tried” cake.
I kind of like what the Twins are doing with their rotation
It’s gonna be tough for the Twins the rest of the way, but I think they’ve put together a pretty interesting collection of arms, with Mick Abel and Taj Bradley joining them via trade in recent days. Both need some tweaks to actually become useful rotation pieces, but the talent is clearly there for both of them. Abel needs a changeup and both need significantly better command, but both also have live arms and at least mid-rotation upside if they do figure it out. The same is true for Zebby Matthews and David Festa (on the IL), and the Twins should have plenty of flexibility to allow all of them to work on it at the MLB level the rest of the way. And, if one or two of them click, the rebuilding process could be shorter than you think here.
The Cubs should have done more
Unfortunately, you can’t really say the same thing for the Cubs. Now, given that Joe Ryan, Sandy Alcantara, and Edward Cabrera were all held at the deadline, it’s pretty clear that the price for starting pitchers was exorbitant, and I do like the decision to acquire Mike Soroka on the cheap. But the Cubs had a couple of holes despite their success, and they didn’t really manage to fill any of them with an impact player; Willi Castro is a solid utility man, but he’s only a mild upgrade at third base, and neither Andrew Kittredge nor Taylor Rogers is likely to run away with the closer job if Daniel Palencia falters. They still have plenty of talent, but with Kyle Tucker heading into free agency, I figured there would be more urgency to add another star at the deadline, especially with top prospects Owen Caissie and Moises Ballesteros effectively blocked in the short and medium term.
I like the Marlins‘ decision to hold
Indulge me for a minute as the resident Marlins fan. They moved Jesus Sanchez, but held on to Edward Cabrera and Sandy Alcantara, both of which came as moderate surprises, at least. But Alcantara is near the nadir of his value, so holding him for the offseason makes plenty of sense to try to get him back on track. And as for Cabrera, I think he might just have more value to the Marlins than he was ever going to fetch in trade. Cabrera is finally throwing strikes at a reasonable pace after tweaking his arm angle and pitch mix early in the season, and with three more years of club control after this one, hanging on to him and seeing if he can keep building on his post-April success makes sense, especially since the Marlins suddenly look closer to being competitive than expected. Both Cabrera and Alcantara could still have plenty of trade value in the offseason if they stay healthy, but both could also be a key part of the rotation in 2026 for a team on the upswing.
Post-deadline bullpen carousel
We’ll break them up into three categories: The teams with a new closer coming on board, the teams who shipped their closer out, and the teams with uncertain post-deadline situations. Let’s start with the new closers, and it’s a surprisingly short list:
New closer in
Padres – New Closer: Mason Miller
Right? Miller is the closer here, right? He’s certainly better than Robert Suarez (no knock on Suarez), and while I’ve seen some speculation that the Padres might try to transition Miller back to the rotation, that seems extremely unlikely to happen in the next two months – that’s an offseason experiment. They gave up the No. 3 prospect in baseball, per MLB Pipeline; they’re not going to do that just to have Miller serve as a setup man, right? If I’m being 100% honest, this should be in the “Uncertain” group, but I’m going to plant my flag on Miller being the closer here.
Phillies – New closer: Jhoan Duran
Now, Duran is definitely going to be the closer in Philadelphia. That doesn’t mean he’ll never be used in a high-leverage spot in the eighth inning, or anything – Rob Thomson has never been by-the-books with his closer usage – but Duran is absolutely going to be the primary closer in Philadelphia. And he should continue to be a very, very good one.
Old closer out
Giants – New closer: Randy Rodriguez (probably)
It could be Ryan Walker, who has more experience in the role. But he already lost that job once this season, and Rodriguez has consistently been pitching in more high-leverage situations lately. He’s also just better than Walker and could have top-12 upside if he is the closer. There might be a bit of wishful thinking in this call, but I feel pretty comfortable with it. This is probably the biggest winner of the trade deadline among relievers, and he’s pretty close to a must-add closer.
Pirates – New closer: Dennis Santana
Santana is a relatively unexciting choice, what with just 7.4 K/9 to his name for the season. But he’s been effective, including while filling in as closer earlier in the season, so this one feels like a natural transition. I don’t necessarily trust him as a shutdown closer, but I feel comfortable projecting the role, at least. He might be the No. 2 priority on waivers among closers.
Athletics – New closer: Some combination of Jack Perkins, Michael Kelly, and Sean Newcomb (maybe?)
This one isn’t clear at all. Newcomb has been the best of the bunch this season, but there’s a very limited track record to go on there, and teams are often hesitant to fully trust lefties in the closer role, so that feels shaky. But if we don’t have a good sense of who will be in the role, it’s usually not a bad idea to just default to whoever the best pitcher is, and that’s probably Newcomb.
Twins – New closer: I have no idea who is even on the roster anymore
Well, we thought it was Griffin Jax, but he was sent to the Rays, so this one could be wide open. At least in part because the Twins made so many moves over the past few days that we just don’t know what the roster is going to look like. Cole Sands is certainly an option, but he’s taken a huge step back this season, with a career-worst 18.8% strikeout rate. But Justin Topa has basically identical numbers and is significantly older, so I guess I’ll defer to the younger guy who might have a future with the Twins.
Cardinals – New closer: Maybe JoJo Romero?
I’m always skeptical about believing teams are going to go with lefty closers, and the Cardinals don’t have another go-to lefty reliever in their bullpen right now, which makes it even tougher to believe in Romero. But Romero is so clearly the best pitcher in this bullpen right now that I’m also inclined to just give him the benefit of the doubt for now.
Nationals – New closer: Jose Ferrer
Another one where we’ll just default to the lefty for lack of better options. Of course, in Ferrer’s case, he’s not exactly having a good season, with a 4.78 ERA and a mediocre strikeout rate. But he’s the best choice here, ahead of the likes of Cole Henry, Konnor Pilkington, or Zach Brzykcy, even if he’s the guy you settle for as a $1 backup bid if you can’t get the other, better new closers.
Uncertain situations
Yankees – Closer candidates: Devin Williams, David Bednar, Camilo Doval, and Luke Weaver
That’s a lot of late-inning firepower, including three different All-Star closers. I’m willing to assume Williams will get the first crack despite being shaky again lately, something Aaron Boone confirmed Thursday, but there might be zero margin for error here. This could be a mess the rest of the season, but if you’ve been rostering Bednar and Doval, I would try to wait a week before dropping either, just to see how this might shake out.
Tigers – Closer candidates: Will Vest, Kyle Finnegan
It’s probably going to be a bit messy, as usual in Detroit. Tommy Kahnle might get the odd save, but I’d guess it’ll be more like an even split between Vest and Finnegan. But Vest is the better pitcher at this point in their career, and it wouldn’t surprise me much if he ran away with the job at some point. One sleeper to keep an eye on here: Troy Melton, who will move to the bullpen and could figure into the high-leverage role if his stuff plays up in shorter bursts.
Rangers – Closer candidates: Robert Garcia, Phil Maton
It’s probably just Garcia, who has done very well in the role since taking over a couple of months ago. And the Rangers have enough lefties in their bullpen that they don’t necessarily have to save Garcia for those late-inning left handed hitters, which is usually the concern. But the Rangers were reportedly looking for closers at the deadline, and Maton has looked excellent in a high-leverage role this season, so I don’t want to write off the possibility that they could turn to him. After all, the Rangers went through a bunch of failed options before giving Garcia a chance in the first place.
Rays – Closer candidates: Pete Fairbanks, Griffin Jax
People have been trying to wishcast Fairbanks out of the closer’s role in Tampa for a while now, despite the fact that he’s generally been exceptional when healthy. He’s been a little less effective this season, but not to the point where I really think there’s much chance he’ll lose his job. I’ll put the Rays here just because Jax is pretty obviously a better pitcher than Fairbanks, and while Jax never overtook Duran in Minnesota, Fairbanks is no Jhoan Duran.
Diamondbacks – Closer candidates: Kevin Ginkel, I guess
This one is uncertain mostly because Ginkel has just been awful; if he ever settles in, I think he’ll just be the closer in Arizona, especially after they traded the still-injured Shelby Miller. If Ginkel continues to struggle, Kendall Graveman has a history of pitching well out of the bullpen, though he’s struggled mightily since coming back from his hip injury, so that’s no guarantee. It might be Ginkel or bust in Arizona.
Orioles– Closer candidates: Corbin Martin, Yennier Cano
So, this one isn’t entirely the result of the trade deadline — Felix Bautista was placed on the IL with a shoulder injury last week, which shook up this situation in the first place. But then the Orioles traded Andrew Kittredge and Gregory Soto, two of the candidates for trades, which seemed to break this one wide open. My guess is Cano gets the next save opportunity for the Orioles, given that he has the most experience in that role. But Martin got the most recent one, so maybe they’ll continue to see if the one-time starting pitching prospect can successfully transition to the bullpen. Given his minor-league numbers, expectations should be low, but Martin is an interesting flier in deeper leagues.