The trade deadline may be Thursday at 6 p.m. ET, but the deals are already coming in. And while we’re likely to see some team set itself on a course for a championship while several others fundamentally alter their long-term trajectory, chances are you’re mostly concerned with how the deals affect you. Typical.
Fortunately, there’s the Trade Deadline Tracker to cater to your self centeredness. Here, you’ll find quick-hitting analysis from Chris Towers and myself (Scott White) for all the moves that matter to Fantasy Baseball. Be sure to bookmark this page and circle back as the moves come pouring in. It could be a wild ride.
This is a park upgrade, and not an insignificant one. If Hayes had played his entire career at Great American Ballpark, he would have 59 homers, per Statcast data; in Pittsburgh, he would have 34. Of course, a 40% increase in homers isn’t especially meaningful for a guy who has six homers in 196 games dating back to the start of last season.
And there’s the problem with Hayes. He’s an elite defender who should have some value to the Reds no matter what he does with the bat, but does that matter for Fantasy? Not unless the Reds find a way to fix what has become a completely broken swing. Hayes used to combine pretty good plate discipline with excellent raw power, but he struggled to maximize that power because he didn’t elevate the ball consistently, especially down the left field line. Now, he just doesn’t really do anything well; his strikeout rate is a little better than average, but his quality of contact has tanked, down to a .330 expected wOBA on contact this season, well below the league average of .369. There are latent tools here waiting to be unlocked, and maybe the Reds will be better equipped to do it. Maybe a change of scenery will do it, even.
But given how long it’s been since Hayes mattered for Fantasy, even a change of scenery and a huge upgrade in ballpark isn’t enough to push him onto Fantasy radars outside of the absolute deepest leagues.
As for the Pirates, they got reliever Taylor Rogers (who could be traded elsewhere by Thursday’s deadline) and shortstop prospect Sammy Stafura, a 20-year-old hitting .262/.393/.411 at Low-A this season. The walk rate is terrific and he has plenty of speed (28 steals in 88 games), but there doesn’t seem to be enough power in his profile to overcome his contact issues. Even in a best-case scenario, he’s probably several years away from mattering, and he probably won’t outside of very deep Dynasty leagues.
This deal doesn’t really matter for Fantasy, except for what it implies: That the Angels are buying heading into the deadline. And that seems to make it much less likely that they are going to trade Kenley Jansen by Thursday. That’s meaningful because Reid Detmers looked well positioned to make a big impact for Fantasy if Jansen was out of the picture, but now it looks like he’ll remain a setup man for the rest of the season. Get your jokes in about a team with a 5.3% chance of making the playoffs, per FanGraphs.com, actually going for it, but ours is not to reason why.
Neither player seems especially likely to factor into their new teams’ closer situations, though Dominguez could be insurance in case Jeff Hoffman suddenly falters. But the interesting wrinkle here is what it means for the Orioles‘ bullpen. Felix Bautista was place on the IL with a shoulder injury and it doesn’t sound like it’s going to be a minimum-length stay, so things are pretty wide open in Baltimore right now. The only save since Bautista’s injury actually went to Soto on Thursday, and Dominguez got the ninth inning in a four-run win over the Rockies over the weekend, just to give a sense of how wide open it is. Yennier Cano has some closing experience and has been very good in the past, but he’s struggled to a 4.42 ERA this season, so we’ll see how much faith they have in him, I guess. I would bet on Cano being the top option, with Andrew Kittredge also a candidate – if they both don’t get traded themselves. This might be a stay-away situation for the time being.
All that being said, the first save appearance after all of the shuffling went to Corbin Martin, a one-time big-deal pitching prospect who has re-emerged in the Orioles bullpen. He had a 5.29 ERA with mediocre peripherals in Triple-A, so skepticism is warranted, but if you’re desperate for saves and want to beat the deadline rush, take a look at him.
McMahon has been less a stud in Fantasy than a steady presence, consistently delivering 20 to 25 home runs with a not so terrible batting average. The batting average has been closer to terrible this year, which only raises concerns over how a player with his already fringe profile can survive away from the most hitter friendly ballpark in baseball. After all, McMahon is a career .264 hitter with an .820 OPS at Coors Field vs. .216 and .664 everywhere else. Then again, projecting hitters who leave Colorado is never as simple as extrapolating their road starts. When they’re accustomed to seeing the ball move a certain way in a thin-air environment, a temporary displacement from that environment (like going on a road trip) is particularly jarring, but a more permanent displacement brings about a more permanent adjustment.
That’s the hope for McMahon as he goes to the Yankees, who, of course, have one of the most homer friendly venues for lefties, but there’s another problem. His swing isn’t geared to take advantage of the short porch in right field, as demonstrated by the poor pulled air rates throughout his career. Statcast suggests that if he had played every game at Yankee Stadium, he’d have hit 28 fewer home runs in his career. To make matters worse, the Yankees acquired Amed Rosario a day after acquiring McMahon, and there’s some speculation that the two could platoon moving forward. All in all, there are just too many negatives here for me to think McMahon will remain viable in standard size leagues. –Scott White
Naylor hadn’t missed a beat with his move from Cleveland to Arizona in the offseason. Sure, he was on pace for about 20 homers rather than the 31 he hit in 2024, but with an additional 50 points in batting average. His game has always required a certain amount of tradeoff between those two numbers. You might worry that a move to Seattle crushes his Fantasy value since T-Mobile Park has a reputation for suppressing home runs, but Chase Field rates similarly in that regard. Naylor obviously made the necessary adjustment to that venue, actually hitting better there (.324 batting average and .855 OPS) than on the road.
T-Mobile Park has its own unique complications, though. Some of the hitters who have passed through have complained about the batter’s eye, and there’s no telling until we see him there whether Naylor will be afflicted by that. I would have rather him stayed in Arizona, where he had a better supporting cast and some history of success already, and the added uncertainty is enough for me to drop him behind Cody Bellinger in my rest-of-season rankings (it was already a close call). The most likely scenario, though, is that Naylor continues to perform about the same as he already was. –Scott White