James Cook didn’t practice Sunday, and he’s not planning to practice on Monday either. When asked for a reason, the Bills running back told ESPN it was “business.” And now we have a hold-in situation in Buffalo.
It appeared like we were in the clear with Cook and his contract situation when he reported for the start of training camp. He still wanted a new deal, but Cook was practicing in full. And then came Sunday.
We’ll see how long this lasts, but Cook’s Fantasy stock will now decline. On Sunday, he was RB13 at No. 31 overall based on the FantasyPros Average Draft Position. I dropped him to RB15 and No. 41 overall in my rankings, and he could continue to move down.
Conversely, the value for Ray Davis will rise. Prior to Sunday, Davis was RB51 and No. 168 overall based on the FantasyPros ADP. I moved him up to RB46 and No. 120 overall in my rankings, and he’s one of my favorite sleepers to target.
Last year, Davis played one game without Cook, which was Week 6 at the Jets. Davis had 20 carries for 97 yards and caught three passes for 55 yards on three targets, and he scored 18.2 PPR points.
Davis had three games in 2024 with double digits in carries, and he scored at least 13.7 PPR points in each outing. He could be a star if Cook were to miss any games in the regular season.
Now, that probably won’t happen because of his contract, and Cook will hopefully be on the field for Game 1 against Baltimore. But Cook could be headed for a downturn in production, given the recent history of players dealing with contract situations.
In 2024, we had Ja’Marr Chase, CeeDee Lamb, Brandon Aiyuk, and Jordan Love miss practice time over a contract issue. Of these guys, only Chase excelled in 2024. He had a career season when he won the Triple Crown with 127 catches for 1,708 yards and 17 touchdowns, and he averaged 23.7 PPR points per game.
Lamb went from 23.7 PPR points per game in 2023 to 17.6 in 2024. He dealt with a shoulder injury, and he struggled when Dak Prescott (hamstring) got hurt.
Aiyuk suffered a torn ACL and PCL in his right knee in Week 7. Prior to getting injured, Aiyuk scored more than 9.8 PPR points just once in seven games.
Love only missed four training camp practices before getting a contract extension, but he struggled with knee and groin injuries in 2024. He also went from 22.5 Fantasy points per game in 2023 to 18.9 last year.
In 2023, Jonathan Taylor and Josh Jacobs had contract issues, and both struggled with their production. Taylor missed seven games, and he averaged just 15.6 PPR points per game, which is the second-worst mark of his career. And Jacobs only played 13 games, and he averaged a career-low 13.9 PPR points per game in his final season with the Raiders.
Did the contract situations lead to the injuries or the poor production? There’s no way to know, but the history isn’t good. It’s why we want Cook to get this resolved as soon as possible.
Keep in mind that Fantasy managers were already somewhat torn on Cook. Despite a career season in 2024 at 16.7 PPR points per game, he had fewer carries, rushing yards, targets, receptions, receiving yards, and receiving touchdowns than in 2023. But he had a massive spike in touchdowns with 16 rushing, which tied for the NFL lead, and 18 total scores.
If Cook came into training camp with a new contract and no concerns, then it would have been easy to justify drafting him in early Round 3 or maybe even late Round 2. But now, given his “business” decision to miss practice, the earliest you should draft Cook is Round 4 in the majority of leagues, while Davis will see his value rise with every day that Cook isn’t on the field.