Free MLB home run picks, odds, lines for July 1: Juan Soto among best bets for Tuesday HR player props

Juan Soto doesn’t turn 27 until late-October, but the Mets superstar has already clubbed 221 home runs in his MLB career. Now he’s heating up after a somewhat inauspicious beginning to his Mets career. The $765-million man posted a 1.196 OPS in June and has now hit 20 home runs in 2025. He’s also probably due for some generally improved batted-ball luck with a .259 BABIP that is 46 points below his career average despite a career-high 94.1 mph average exit velocity.

Soto is one of the hottest hitters in Major League Baseball, so it should come as no surprise that we’re jumping at the +400 price he’s being offered in the latest MLB home runs odds from FanDuel as he takes on the Brewers on a warm evening with wind blowing out. He’s one of our top options in our MLB HR parlay on Tuesday, which pays well over 100-1. MLB home run props are available for almost every player in every game at various sportsbooks, and SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB home run picks on betting sites.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. After nailing Juan Soto (+450), Riley Greene (+425), Ketel Marte (+500) and Wilyer Abreu (+420) the last four days, it’s up 26.60 units on its MLB HR picks during the last 84 days. Now, the model and SportsLine’s team of Data Scientists have revealed their projections for some of the most-bet MLB HR prop bets on Tuesday. You can find even more picks in their daily blog.

Best MLB home run picks for Tuesday, July 1:

• Juan Soto, Mets (+400)
• Riley Greene, Tigers (+375)
• Byron Buxton, Twins (+375)
• Parlay these picks for +11181 odds at BetMGM (odds subject to change)

Juan Soto, Mets (+400)

He’s only 1-for-10 in his career against expected Marlins starter Edward Cabrera, but that one hit was a home run and he’s absolutely blistering recently. Soto is 94th percentile among MLB hitters in nine of the 13 categorized batting metrics from MLB Statcast and it feels like last month was a recognition of his true talent rather than an unsustainable period of success.

“While the Mets have been struggling as of late, Juan Soto has not. Soto finished June with a .322 average and 11 home runs over 27 games,” SportsLine data analyst Jacob Fetner said. “We set the line at +345 for Soto to hit a home run on Tuesday.” BetMGM and FanDuel are both offering this price today and you can also get $150 in bonus bets if your first $5 bet wins with this FanDuel promo code.

Riley Greene, Tigers (+375)

Greene’s 104 strikeouts lead the MLB, but it’s hard to find any other holes in his game. He was an MLB all-star for the first time in 2024, but he’s been even better this season and the former top-five pick has an ideal matchup on Tuesday against the Nationals.

“Greene has a .993 OPS with 18 of his 19 HRs against right-handed pitchers, and he has also been better on the road, where he is hitting .318 with 11 HRs in just 39 games,” Fetner said. “Trevor Williams has been getting hit hard by left-handed hitters all season. Lefties are hitting .373 with a .992 OPS against Williams over a 16-game sample size this season.” BetMGM is offering the best price for Greene to homer, and you can also get up to $1,500 in bonus bets back if your first bet loses with this BetMGM promo code.

Byron Buxton, Twins (+375)

Buxton has only had one season in his career where he’s played in more than 102 big league games, but his power is undeniable when he is in the lineup and he’s only missed 17 games so far this season. He’s averaged a home run once every 14.2 at bats since 2020. Only Aaron Judge, Shohei Ohtani, Mike Trout and Kyle Schwarber have homered more frequently in that span.

“Buxton continues to rake when he is healthy. He is up to 19 HRs in 67 games this season. In the month of June, Buxton hit 9 HRs in just 24 games,” Fetner said. “We set the line at +290 for Buxton to homer today.” BetMGM and bet365 are offering this price today, and you can get $150 in bonus bets after making a $10 deposit and $5 wager with this bet365 promo code.

Where to bet MLB props on Tuesday

Here is a look at sportsbooks that will offer MLB player props on Tuesday:

More MLB picks for Tuesday

You’ve seen the model’s MLB HR prop picks for several players on Tuesday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.

Need more from SportsLine? See today’s best MLB picks from SportsLine’s Matt Snyder, who is on a 15-8 roll (+938) on MLB ATS picks.