The Seattle Mariners extended their winning streak to five games on Friday night when catcher Cal Raleigh hit his MLB-leading 43rd home run in the eighth inning of a 3-2 win over Tampa Bay. Raleigh erased Seattle’s two-run deficit with the three-run bomb, which was his first homer since July 31. He holds a two-homer lead over Phillies slugger Kyle Schwarber, who hit his 41st homer on Friday. Raleigh is +285 to go yard in the Saturday MLB odds, and that is one of the MLB props that SportsLine’s model is targeting.
The model has also identified value on Oneil Cruz to steal a base (+370) and Michael King to go over 5.5 strikeouts (+100). When it comes to MLB betting, MLB player props are a great way to find value at online sports betting sites. With MLB props available for almost every player in every game at sportsbooks, SportsLine’s proven computer model can help you find value to add to your MLB prop picks. They can also help new users take advantage of the best sportsbook promos like the latest Fanatics Sportsbook promo code, where new users can get 10x $100 No Sweat Bets in FanCash:
The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every MLB game 10,000 times. It entered Week 20 of the 2025 MLB season a profitable 28-23 on top-rated MLB money-line picks. It has excelled in making home run prop picks this season, returning nearly 50 units of profit. Anybody following its MLB picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites could have seen strong returns. Also, be sure to see the model’s top picks for Braves vs. Marlins and Phillies vs. Rangers.
Best Saturday MLB player prop picks:
Cal Raleigh, Mariners, over 0.5 home runs (+285)
Raleigh has homered in back-to-back games four times since the middle of June, and he will be swinging a confident bat on Saturday after his game-winning homer on Friday. The 28-year-old is up to a league-leading 43 homers overall this season. Rays starting pitcher Joe Boyle has a 2.30 ERA in seven appearances (three starts) this year, but he posted a 6.42 ERA across 10 starts with the Athletics last season. SportsLine’s model has Raleigh’s home run odds at +224 on Saturday, creating value at +285. This prop is available at FanDuel, where you can get $150 in bonus bets if your first $5 bet wins.
Oneil Cruz, Pirates, over 0.5 stolen bases (+370)
Cruz has gone 13 games without stealing a base, which has led to an inflated price on Saturday. He stole 34 bases in his first 87 starts of the season, providing some immediate value at +370. Cruz is facing Reds starting pitcher Nick Martinez, who is 9-9 with a 4.66 ERA this season. Pittsburgh’s center fielder still ranks second in the majors in stolen bases, despite his lengthy drought.
Michael King, Padres, over 5.5 strikeouts (+100)
King (shoulder) is returning from the 60-day injured list on Saturday night, getting set for his first start since May 18 following right shoulder thoracic nerve impingement. He made a rehab start last weekend with Triple-A El Paso, striking out five batters across 3.1 innings. King threw 61 pitches and felt healthy after the appearance, which are both good signs heading into this start. The model has King racking up 6.46 strikeouts on Saturday, making the Over a valuable wager.
MLB HR, stolen base, strikeouts prop cheat sheet
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The table below shows today’s projected leading Home Run, Stolen Base and Strikeout Leaders. We include the projection and for HRs and SBs the money line we’d set for YES HR/SB. You can use this cheat sheet to compare it to your book’s line and if your book’s line is significantly higher than ours (and you like the player) then you would want to consider that bet.
Yesterday, we successfully backed Brandon Woodruff and faded Tarik Skubal’s strikeouts.
Today our #1 projected strikeout pitcher is San Diego’s Michael King at 6.5 who faces Boston at home. You can get the over at +100 on both Fanatics and Hard Rock. King only averages 3.7 Ks on the road, but at home he’s a beast with a 7.6 average (6-1 over 5.5). He has 8 in his last 2 outings. He only has gone more than 5.2 innings once in his recent 6-1 stretch which ironically was his 1 under (road game at NY).
Both Jose Ramirez and Oneil Cruz are +223 on Stolen Bases. Ramirez is on a 6 SB-less game while Cruz has an even longer stretch without a stolen base (up to 13 games). Markets still believe in Ramirez and the best price on him to have an SB is just +185 on Fanatics (down to +155 on Hard Rock) so at +223 in our model there is no value.
Cruz is still 2nd in the league in SB despite this stretch and perhaps it’ll be ‘lucky #14’ and he’ll swipe a base or two. The +370 value that FanDuel is offering is nearly +150 ML units of value and too much to pass up. Our model line of +223 implies 31% which is well over the 22% that +370 implies.
| RANK | HR | SB | K |
| 8/9 | PLAYER | HR PROJ | PROP LINE | PLAYER | SB PROJ | PROP LINE | STARTER | K PROJ |
| 1 | Aaron Judge (NYY) | 0.364 | +175 | Elly De La Cruz (CIN) | 0.379 | +164 | Michael King (SD) | 6.46 |
| 2 | Nick Kurtz (ATH) | 0.335 | +199 | Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.31 | +223 | Framber Valdez (HOU) | 6.34 |
| 3 | Cal Raleigh (SEA) | 0.309 | +224 | Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.31 | +223 | Jesus Luzardo (PHI) | 6.33 |
| 4 | Kyle Schwarber (PHI) | 0.308 | +225 | Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) | 0.305 | +228 | Joey Cantillo (CLE) | 6.21 |
| 5 | Shohei Ohtani (LAD) | 0.273 | +266 | Esteury Ruiz (LAD) | 0.281 | +256 | Blake Snell (LAD) | 6.17 |
| 6 | George Springer (TOR) | 0.271 | +269 | Chandler Simpson (TB) | 0.276 | +262 | Yusei Kikuchi (LAA) | 6.1 |
| 7 | Jose Ramirez (CLE) | 0.266 | +276 | Bobby Witt (KC) | 0.274 | +265 | Jacob deGrom (TEX) | 6.01 |
| 8 | Junior Caminero (TB) | 0.264 | +279 | Luis Robert (CHW) | 0.259 | +286 | Chris Bassitt (TOR) | 5.74 |
| 9 | Ketel Marte (ARI) | 0.263 | +280 | Victor Scott (STL) | 0.252 | +297 | Charlie Morton (DET) | 5.43 |
| 10 | Kyle Stowers (MIA) | 0.261 | +283 | Xavier Edwards (MIA) | 0.251 | +298 | Luis Gil (NYY) | 5.27 |
| 11 | Brent Rooker (ATH) | 0.248 | +303 | Zach Neto (LAA) | 0.243 | +312 | Eduardo Rodriguez (ARI) | 5.23 |
| 12 | Tyler Soderstrom (ATH) | 0.236 | +324 | Jose Caballero (NYY) | 0.23 | +335 | Noah Cameron (KC) | 5.23 |
| 13 | Juan Soto (NYM) | 0.232 | +331 | Brice Turang (MIL) | 0.229 | +337 | Jack Perkins (ATH) | 5.16 |
| 14 | Mike Trout (LAA) | 0.23 | +335 | Corbin Carroll (ARI) | 0.226 | +342 | Lucas Giolito (BOS) | 5.06 |
| 15 | Spencer Torkelson (DET) | 0.225 | +344 | Maikel Garcia (KC) | 0.219 | +357 | Nick Martinez (CIN) | 5.01 |
| 16 | Oneil Cruz (PIT) | 0.225 | +344 | David Hamilton (BOS) | 0.207 | +383 | Bailey Ober (MIN) | 4.99 |
| 17 | Bobby Witt (KC) | 0.225 | +344 | Ha-seong Kim (TB) | 0.204 | +390 | Ryan Gusto (MIA) | 4.98 |
| 18 | Brandon Lowe (TB) | 0.219 | +357 | Jarren Duran (BOS) | 0.203 | +393 | Brandon Young (BAL) | 4.91 |
| 19 | Shea Langeliers (ATH) | 0.219 | +357 | Kyle Tucker (CHC) | 0.199 | +403 | Francellis Montas (NYM) | 4.7 |
| 20 | Pete Alonso (NYM) | 0.217 | +361 | CJ Abrams (WAS) | 0.198 | +405 | Joe Boyle (TB) | 4.69 |
| —- |
More MLB picks for Saturday
You’ve seen the model’s MLB props for several players on Saturday. Now, get MLB projections for every player prop at SportsLine.
Need more from SportsLine? See today’s best MLB picks from SportsLine’s Bruce Marshall, who is on an 84-79-1 roll (+1154) on MLB picks.