The list of teams to make five Super Bowls in six years starts and ends with the Kansas City Chiefs, but Super Bowl LIX may have been the most demoralizing defeat in Patrick Mahomes‘ tenure. The Eagles delivered six unanswered scores to start the game, leaving the Chiefs down 34-0 near the end of the third quarter with no answers for Philadelphia’s excellent pass rush. The Chiefs got 11 yards on their first play from scrimmage and no other first downs over the rest of the first half, gaining a total of two yards in the process. It was, in short, a shellacking.
Where do the Chiefs go from here? The major sportsbooks have set the Chiefs’ odds to win the Super Bowl behind not only the team that embarrassed them in last year’s championship but also two teams they have dominated in the AFC playoffs for years, the Ravens and Bills. That amounts to essentially a vote of no confidence from the betting markets, considering how hard to beat Kansas City has been postseason after postseason.
The biggest position of need was made clear in the loss to the Eagles, and the Chiefs threw a two-year, $30 million deal at Jaylon Moore and used their first-round pick on Ohio State’s Josh Simmons in the hopes that one will finally solidify the left tackle slot that has made Mahomes too vulnerable to pressure in recent years. But the offensive line will also have to overcome the loss of one of the best guards in the league over the last decade, as Joe Thuney was dealt this offseason. The new left side of the offensive line will go a long way to determining whether the 2025 Chiefs are a championship contender or a ticking time bomb hoping to avoid a relentless pass rush once again.
We’re going to take a quick look at the Chiefs’ 2024 season and the rest of their offseason moves before getting into their track record in NFL futures over the last five years. After that, you can find the odds available at top sportsbooks for their 2025 win total along with Super Bowl and playoff odds as well as key player props to know. Finally, we’ll take a look at the pros and cons of betting on the Chiefs in 2025 and give out our best bets.
2024 Kansas City Chiefs season review
- Regular season: 15-2 (AFC West champions)
- Playoffs: L, Super Bowl vs. Eagles 40-22
- Franchise-record 15 wins (lost 40-22 vs Eagles in Super Bowl LIX)
- Seven straight conference championship appearances (second-longest streak all-time, 2011-18 Patriots)
- First team ever to reach five Super Bowls in six-season span
- Fourth team to make three straight Super Bowls (1971-73 Dolphins, 1990-93 Bills, 2016-18 Patriots)
- 11-0 in one-score games (tied most wins all-time, 2022 Vikings)
2025 Kansas City Chiefs offseason review
Five-year futures odds and trends
| 2024 | +500 | 11.5 | Over | 15 | L, Super Bowl |
| 2023 | +600 | 11.5 | Under | 11 | W, Super Bowl |
| 2022 | +1020 | 10.5 | Over | 14 | W, Super Bowl |
| 2021 | +450 | 12.5 | Under | 12 | L, AFC Championship |
| 2020 | +450 | 11.5 | Over | 14 | L, Super Bowl |
Historical betting data via Pro-Football-Reference.
2025 Kansas City Chiefs futures odds
| Go Over win total | 11.5 (+100) | 10.5 (-180) | 11.5 (+100) | 11.5 (+100) |
| Go Under win total | 11.5 (-120) | 10.5 (+148) | 11.5 (-120) | 11.5 (-120) |
| Win Super Bowl | +800 | +800 | +800 | +800 |
| Win AFC | +360 | +380 | +400 | +400 |
| Win AFC North | -120 | -120 | -120 | -115 |
| Make playoffs | -450 | -400 | -380 | -420 |
| Miss playoffs | +310 | +300 | +290 | +310 |
| Win No. 1 seed | +425 | +375 | +475 | +380 |
Odds subject to change.
2025 Patrick Mahomes props
| MVP | +650 | +650 | +700 | +600 |
| Offensive POY | +8000 | +8000 | +10000 | +7500 |
| Most pass yards | +900 | +950 | +900 | |
| Pass yards O/U | 4050.5 | 3950.5 | 4050.5 | 4000.5 |
| Pass TDs O/U | 27.5 | 27.5 | 27.5 | 27.5 |
Odds subject to change.
Reasons to back the Chiefs
Are eight straight trips to the AFC Championship and five Super Bowl trips in the last six years with three titles not enough? Then let’s consider the state of the offense heading into this season, which seems to be on much more solid ground at left tackle with the pairing of Jaylon Moore and Josh Simmons. The rookie is expected to start at left tackle when healthy, and his patellar tear is the only reason he was available to Kansas City at No. 32 overall rather than taken in the top 15 picks. Moore has done an admirable job when pressed into action due to injuries to Trent Williams over the last two years, and he could be an option to replace penalty machine Jawaan Taylor at right tackle when Simmons is healthy as well.
Mahomes also gets back Rashee Rice and Marquise Brown for the start of the season after the pair saw a combined six regular-season games and 44 targets last year. Good health from the pair will make the passing game less reliant on future Hall of Fame tight end Travis Kelce, who turns 36 in October. After a career-low 8.5 yards per reception last year, it’s time for Kelce to step into a more complementary role in the offense. The defense also remains a key strength for the Chiefs after finishing top four in scoring for the second straight season.
Reasons to fade the Chiefs
The left tackle position couldn’t go much worse for the Chiefs than it did last year, but what if Simmons just isn’t an improvement in his first year back from a major injury? Coupled with Taylor’s struggles on the right side and the uncertainty with how Kingsley Suamataia is going to replace Joe Thuney, the Chiefs really only have two settled spots on the offensive line, and it’s possible Patrick Mahomes runs into many of the same issues that have caused the team to finish 15th in scoring in each of the last two seasons after ranking inside the top six in each of Mahomes’ first five seasons. The rushing attack may not offer much help after finishing 29th in yards per attempt last year and only adding complementary pieces this offseason.
While the Chiefs finished with a franchise-best 15-2 record, last year was their worst in terms of point differential not only in Patrick Mahomes’ career but also in Andy Reid’s tenure, which dates back to 2013. The Chiefs had never finished lower than 10th in point differential in that stretch and only twice below sixth, but their 11th-place finish with +59 left them well short of two division rivals in the Broncos (+114) and Chargers (+101), who both seemed to get better this offseason. The Chiefs are projected to play one of the hardest schedules in the league, while both Denver and L.A. are around league average, which puts the division title at much greater risk than it’s been in years past.
How to bet the Chiefs in 2025
- Under 11.5 wins -120 (BetMGM)
- Patrick Mahomes Over 27.5 TDs -110 (DraftKings)
My initial play on the Chiefs was to hammer the division title as a price we typically haven’t been given during this incredible run of nine straight AFC West titles. But after digging into the other teams in the division, I’m not sure even -115 is enough value to back Kansas City. The key is to throw last year’s record, which was built off the back of going undefeated in 11 one-score games, out the window and just consider what this team has been the last two years, which has been very good but not necessarily elite during the regular season despite having one of the best defenses in football. The upside is always there for the Chiefs to run the table with Patrick Mahomes at quarterback, but I think it’s more likely this team tops out at 10-11 wins and saves itself for the playoffs.
I do think we’re getting good value on Mahomes to throw at least 28 touchdowns this year after he managed 26 last year and 27 the year prior while sitting out the final game each season. I’m not sure the Chiefs will be afforded that luxury this season with how competitive I expect the division will be, so we could already be getting one extra game to get this over the total. Mahomes will also have a better group of receivers in place than he has the last two years, with Rashee Rice and Marquise Brown healthy and Xavier Worthy emerging as a more consistent option in the second half and the playoffs, as he averaged 27.3 yards per game through Week 10 and didn’t have a game under 40 yards (throwing out the brief Week 18 appearance) the rest of the way. If the defense takes any sort of step back from their elite status of the last two years, that also puts more pressure on Mahomes to throw more in the second half and gives him a much better chance of returning to the touchdown rates he had in his first five seasons as a starter.