The Washington Commanders in 2024 became the latest team to ride a standout rookie campaign from a quarterback picked near the top of the draft to a surprise playoff spot, with Jayden Daniels quickly establishing himself as one of the league’s best signal-callers. Not only did the Commanders nearly double their win total set prior to the season, but they won two road playoff games to earn a trip to the NFC Championship, where they gave up seven rushing touchdowns in a loss to the Eagles.
To help bolster their defensive front after finishing 28th in yards per rush allowed, the Commanders signed four new defensive linemen in free agency, most notably Javon Kinlaw to a three-year, $45 million deal, then brought in Von Miller ahead of training camp. But the rest of the team’s key acquisitions this offseason came on the other side of the ball. Deebo Samuel comes over from San Francisco to give Daniels a legit second weapon in the passing game alongside Terry McLaurin. Laremy Tunsil gives Daniels a high-level blindside protector at left tackle, and first-round pick Josh Conerly becomes the heir apparent at right tackle.
If Daniels can avoid a sophomore slump, it’s hard to see the Commanders offense not being among the best in the league once again in 2025. The team’s ceiling may be tied to the defense and whether it can elevate from league average into the top 10. Dan Quinn’s Cowboys defenses finished top seven in scoring in all three of his seasons with the team, but his stint in Atlanta only saw his defense finish higher than 14th once. Pushing beyond that level could be what this team needs to reach the Super Bowl.
We’re going to take a quick look at the Commanders’ 2024 season and the rest of their offseason moves before getting into their track record in NFL futures over the last five years. After that, you can find the odds available at top sportsbooks for their 2025 win total along with Super Bowl and playoff odds as well as key player props to know. Finally, we’ll take a look at the pros and cons of betting on the Commanders in 2025 and give out our best bets.
2024 Washington Commanders season review
- Regular season: 12-5 (Second, NFC East)
- Playoffs: Lost NFC Championship at Eagles 55-23
- Second team ever to go from 13-loss season to 13-win season, including playoffs (1998-99 Colts)
- Won first playoff game since 2005 and reached first NFC Championship Game since 1991
- Jayden Daniels: One of two QBs all-time with 4,000 pass yards and 1,000 rush yards in a season, including playoffs (2024 Lamar Jackson)
2025 Washington Commanders offseason review
| QB | Jeff Driskel | Josh Johnson | |
| RB | Demetric Felton | Jacory Croskey-Merritt (7) | |
| WR | Dyami Brown, Olamide Zaccheaus, K.J. Osborn, Jamison Crowder | Deebo Samuel, Michael Gallup | Jaylin Lane (4) |
| TE | Lawrence Cager | ||
| OL | Cornelius Lucas | Laremy Tunsil, Nate Herbig, Tyre Phillips, Foster Sarell | Josh Conerly (1) |
| DL | Jonathan Allen | Javon Kinlaw, Eddie Goldman | |
| EDGE | Dante Fowler | Deatrich Wise, Jacob Martin, T.J. Maguranyanga, Von Miller | |
| LB | Mykal Walker | Kain Medrano (6) | |
| CB | Benjamin St-Juste, Michael Davis | Jonathan Jones, Allan George | Trey Amos (2) |
| S | Jeremy Chinn, Darrick Forrest | Will Harris |
Five-year futures odds and trends
| 2024 | +15000 | 6.5 | Over | 12 | L, NFC Champ |
| 2023 | +8000 | 6.5 | Under | 4 | 4th, NFC East |
| 2022 | +7600 | 7.5 | Over | 8 | 4th, NFC East |
| 2021 | +4000 | 8.5 | Under | 7 | 3rd, NFC East |
| 2020 | +30000 | 5 | Over | 7 | L, Wild-card round |
Historical betting data via Pro-Football-Reference.
2025 Washington Commanders futures odds
| Go Over win total | 9.5 (-125) | 9.5 (-110) | 9.5 (-125) | 9.5 (-115) |
| Go Under win total | 9.5 (+105) | 9.5 (-110) | 9.5 (+105) | 9.5 (-105) |
| Win Super Bowl | +1800 | +2000 | +1800 | +1800 |
| Win NFC | +900 | +900 | +850 | +950 |
| Win NFC East | +220 | +230 | +205 | +210 |
| Make playoffs | -140 | -145 | -160 | -138 |
| Miss playoffs | +115 | +122 | +130 | +112 |
| Win No. 1 seed | +800 | +750 | +800 | +950 |
Odds subject to change.
2025 Jayden Daniels props
| MVP | +850 | +850 | +750 | +850 |
| Offensive POY | +3500 | +2200 | +4000 | +5000 |
| Most pass yards | +3000 | +5000 | +3400 | |
| Pass yards O/U | 3400.5 | 3400.5 | 3450.5 | 3450.5 |
| Pass TDs O/U | 23.5 | 22.5 | 23.5 | 24.5 |
| Rush yards O/U | 725.5 | 725.5 | 675.5 | 675.5 |
| Rush TDs O/U | 5.5 | 5.5 |
Odds subject to change.
Reasons to back the Commanders
Daniels had a phenomenal rookie campaign, elevating the roster around him quickly and taking Washington to the NFC Championship Game after defeating the No. 1 seed Detroit Lions on the road in the Divisional Round. The addition of Samuel should add more wrinkles to the offense and as long as McLaurin’s contract situation gets sorted out, the passing game should be fine. The Commanders were in the middle of the pack defensively but made some nice additions with Kinlaw and Miller to make up for some shuffling in the secondary. If there’s even a slight improvement on that side of the ball, Washington should be able to contend with Philadelphia for the division title.
Reasons to fade the Commanders
Sophomore slumps are real, and now every team knows what Daniels is capable of. There’s always some level of relaxation when facing a rookie quarterback for the first time but now every opponent will be locked in. The Commanders also won their last four games on what was basically the final play. Throw in the Hail Mary win against the Bears and you have a 5-0 record which would usually be closer to two or three wins. Even with a rising quarterback, this type of miracle work isn’t routine. The Commanders are also in a division with the reigning Super Bowl champions and a Cowboys team poised to bounce back. The schedule isn’t too daunting but there is a key five-game stretch from Oct. 19 at Dallas to Nov. 16 against the Dolphins in London which will likely determine how the season goes.
How to bet the Commanders in 2025
- Miss playoffs +130 (DraftKings)
- Terry McLaurin Over 980.5 receiving yards -110 (BetMGM)
I see the Commanders as a tough team to play or fade in the futures markets this season. Jayden Daniels has the potential to carry the team to 10 wins if the talent we saw last year was real, but he’s going to see a leap in the quality of defenses he faces this year after Washington got to play a last-place schedule in 2024. Since I have them right around 9-10 wins, my best team future is going to be to miss the playoffs at the juicy +130 price at DraftKings, with the thinking that the NFC North and NFC West are so deep that some trio from a pool of the Lions, Packers, Vikings, Bears, Rams, 49ers, Cardinals and Seahawks could take up all the wild card spots and leave Washington needing a division title to make the postseason. If you’d prefer to make a positive play on the Commanders, I’d recommend just going for the big payout of a division winner play and hoping the Eagles’ schedule is the deciding factor.
Terry McLaurin has topped 1,000 receiving yards in five straight seasons, and the only reason he didn’t do so as a rookie was that he played in just 14 games, though his per-game average that year was almost identical to his career average. His role as the team’s No. 1 receiver is secure, and he’s playing with the best quarterback of his career. McLaurin got to 1,096 yards despite five games where he didn’t post more than 22 yards, including in each of the first two weeks of the season as Daniels acclimated to the NFL. Take out those five games, and McLaurin had at least 50 yards in the team’s other 15 games (including playoffs), though his biggest spike week was still only 125 yards. All that is to say that he has the potential for higher highs this year and should sail over this number if those five duds turn into 35-50 yard outings this season. I’m not worried at all about Deebo Samuel stealing targets from McLaurin, as Washington lost 75 receptions between Dyami Brown and Olamide Zaccheaus this offseason, while Samuel has topped 60 catches just once in his career.