Happy Friday, all! After a hot streak in Friday Night lines last week, we ran into a buzzsaw that was betting karma and were crushed last week. After going 4-1 in the previous two iterations, last week yielded 0-2, so that means it’s time to get back on track right here with two plays before trying to nail a home run prop and looking ahead to a future play. Let’s get to it.
The lines are from DraftKings for this Friday.
Ketel Marte o2.5 H+R+RBI (-105)
The Diamondbacks are riding high after a monster comeback against the Braves in the ninth inning on Thursday afternoon. They head to Cincinnati and another great environment for hitters. Marte has loved his time there, that’s for sure. In 21 career games in Great American Ball Park, Marte has hit .310/.390/.690 with two doubles, two triples, seven homers(!), 17 RBI and 14 runs.
Reds starting pitcher Nick Lodolo hasn’t been good at home this season, either, with a 6.15 ERA.
Marte is a beast overall and hits in a cushy lineup spot for the Diamondbacks, leading off against lefties. I’m expecting a big night in Cincy.
Mets-Rockies over 10.5 runs (-115)
The Mets‘ offense in Coors Field against Antonio Senzatela is just lovely. Senzatela has a 7.42 ERA in Coors this season and it’s 7.14 overall. He leads the majors in hits allowed this season. He’s been a veritable smorgasbord for opposing offenses. Not only that, but the Mets just saw Senzatela in his last start and touched him up for seven runs on eight hits in four innings.
So why don’t I just isolate the Mets and take their team total? Because there’s an opening here for some Rockies‘ runs, too.
Mets starter Kodai Senga has never pitched in Coors Field before and the thin air in the Rocky Mountains suppresses pitch movement. Senga is highly reliant on movement, notably from his forkball (the “ghost fork”) and cutter. On top of that, the Rockies just saw Senga in New York last week, scoring two runs on him in 6 ⅓ innings. Hardly an inspired offensive performance, but seeing a pitcher on a quick turnaround like that can benefit an offense due to the familiarity and, again, now there’s the Coors Field factor.
Home run play: Juan Soto (+350)
Soto has homered in three of his last six games. In his career in Coors Field, he has eight home runs in 101 plate appearances (86 at-bats). In four career at-bats against Senzatela, Soto has homered twice, including last time he saw him, which was May 31. I know the odds aren’t gigantic for a home run play, but I love this one tonight.
Futures play: Matt Shaw to win NL Rookie of the Year (+750)
Cubs third baseman Shaw had to be sent back to the minors after struggling to start the season. He actually told me it was the best thing for him and he’s made the adjustments the Cubs asked of him. Since coming back, he’s played in 15 games and has hit .327/.373/.436 with six doubles, four RBI, nine runs and seven stolen bases in seven tries. He has shored up what was the weakest spot on a division-leading team, too.
Overall, Shaw is hitting .248/.331/.336 (94 OPS+), but his 1.1 WAR trails only Braves catcher Drake Baldwin among NL rookies. It’s just not a strong class at all so far. There’s plenty of time this season for Shaw to keep playing like he is and establish an ROY-quality resume. The Cubs being in first place doesn’t hurt, either. With the way things are headed and the glorious +750 sitting on Shaw, now is the time to strike.