There’s been a lot of hand-wringing of late about the NBA regular season. And while I, personally, feel that the concern about its entertainment value is wildly overblown, even I can admit that for the average basketball fan, keeping up with all 30 teams for six months can be a Sisyphean task. Luckily, there are some sickos among us such as myself who pay attention so you don’t have to. Below is a Cliffs Notes, of sorts, for those who don’t really tune in until April. This is what to look for in the first round of the NBA playoffs: the storylines, the matchup nuances, and, most importantly, the drama.
Editor’s Note: the 1 v 8 seed matchups will not be determined until the evening of Friday, April 18, at which time the breakdowns for those series will be added
Eastern Conference NBA Playoffs preview
No. 1 seed Boston Celtics vs. No. 7 seed Orlando Magic
Understandably, many people are expecting the Eastern Conference Finals to be chalk this year; both the Cleveland Cavaliers and the Boston Celtics have proven to be a cut above the rest of the East. I wouldn’t personally differ much from that opinion, and expect Boston to handle the upstart Magic in five games at most, but that doesn’t mean it won’t be an entertaining battle. Orlando really got the short end of the injury stick this year, losing key rotation players Mo Wagner and Jalen Suggs for the season to knee injuries, as well as having stars Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner miss substantial time of their own (both with torn abdominal muscles, interestingly enough). The Celtics are dealing with a worrisome injury of their own in the form of Jaylen Brown’s nagging knee issues, but, supposedly, it isn’t going to keep him off the court.
Injury news aside, this is an interesting case of clashing styles: the Magic are a high level, extremely suffocating defense with substantial shooting woes on the offensive end, while the Celtics are a team that relies heavily on their three point shooting prowess (they lead the league in three pointers made/attempted by a significant margin) and are more known for the finesse of their well-oiled, defending champion machine than their grit and toughness. The Celtics should win this series with relative ease, but it will be a rock fight.
No. 3 seed New York Knicks vs. No. 6 seed Detroit Pistons
This is the series many are looking forward to the most in the first round, at least in the Eastern Conference, and for good reason. In the grand tradition of both the Knicks and Pistons’ storied histories, this is will be a true blue collar series, with both teams’ identity being entrenched in their salt-of-the-earthness and lack of traditional, bonafide top 10 superstar talent (though there is an argument to be made for both the Knicks’ Jalen Brunson and the Pistons’ Cade Cunningham in that department). The Pistons’ story this year is the stuff of Hallmark legend– under the tutelage of Coach of the Year candidate JB Bickerstaff in his first year on the job, Detroit went from historically bad (like, one of the worst teams in NBA history bad) last year to a playoff team this year, a remarkable, feel-good turnaround by any metric. Cade Cunningham, a former number one overall pick who some had begun writing off, has had a sensational star turn for the Pistons this year, and Malik Beasley ended the season with the second most made threes in the league after Anthony Edwards— and did so off the bench, making him a Sixth Man of the Year frontrunner. On the Knicks side of things, they’ve lost a bit of their defensive minded luster and grit of last season, but they’re still home to lovable fan favorites like Josh Hart and team captain Jalen Brunson, and added Karl Anthony Towns, the longtime Minnesota Timberwolf who was unceremoniously shipped to the Knicks shortly before training camp and has helped take their offense to new heights and is having an All-NBA caliber season.
No. 4 seed Indiana Pacers vs. No. 5 seed Milwaukee Bucks
In Pacers vs Bucks, we have our only first round rematch from last year, and it brings back to the forefront something that has become a bonafide rivalry in recent years. The Pacers had the Bucks’ number last season, and, with some help from the injury gods hampering the Bucks’ superstar in perennial MVP candidate in Giannis Antetokounmpo, broke their hearts and sent Doc Rivers & co. packing in round one, despite a heroic effort from Khris Middleton (who has since been shipped to the Washington Wizards for Kyle Kuzma). The Bucks are generally older and methodical in their approach, while, in contrast, the Pacers are true to their name in the speed which defines their identity. Both teams are totally middle of the pack in defensive rating, and they’re 9th and 10th in offensive rating on the year, respectively. So it should be one of the more evenly matched first round bouts.
Had guard Damian Lillard not been miraculously cleared from the scary blood clot that has sidelined him for three weeks (a shockingly quick recovery time that has stunned even the doctors working to help him) and headed back to the floor as soon as game two, I’d have been tempted to say the Pacers take this one, inevitable superhero performance from Giannis notwithstanding. But this should be a super competitive series: the Pacers have been red-hot to end the season, but the Bucks certainly have the high end talent advantage.
Western Conference NBA Playoffs preview
No. 2 seed Houston Rockets vs. No. 7 seed Golden State Warriors
The bracket Gods blessed us with some incredible Western Conference matchups this round from a storylines perspective, and chief among them is the 2/7 matchup between the Houston Rockets and the Golden State Warriors. Where to begin? There’s plenty of history here: The Warriors, famously, stood between what was a really good James Harden-led Rockets team and the NBA Finals for years, and the Rockets were never able to get past them; a fact Houston fans aren’t likely to have forgotten so soon. Then there’s the collision course between three of the league’s fiercest competitors, biggest trolls, and larger-than-life personalities in the form of the Rockets’ Dillon Brooks and the Warriors’ Draymond Green and Jimmy Butler (yes, that Jimmy Butler: the Heat swapped him for Andrew Wiggins at the trade deadline this February). The drama should abound before even factoring in that on the Golden State side of things we get Stephen Curry who, at 37 years old, is still capable of being the best show in basketball on any given night. It’ll be a classic battle of youth (Houston, one of the youngest teams in the NBA) versus experience (The Golden State “big three” have an average age of 35.6 and many years of playoff experience under their belts). Houston leans on their gritty defense and brutal toughness, and the Warriors have long been known for their finesse and IQ. It’s a clash in pretty much every possible sense of the word, and it should make for top tier entertainment.
No. 3 seed Los Angeles Lakers vs. No. 6 seed Minnesota Timberwolves
Speaking of storylines, none were more widely dissected and headline-grabbing than the shock trade of Luka Doncic from the Dallas Mavericks to the Los Angeles Lakers for Anthony Davis in early February, a move so seismic in scope that its reverberations continue to rock the basketball world months later. Doncic will have his first playoff showing as a Laker on Saturday, when his team hosts a red-hot Timberwolves team who saw substantial roster changes of its own this year as they swapped former number one overall pick and franchise darling Karl Anthony Towns for the Knicks’ Julius Randle shortly before training camp in a move that many found surprising (if not quite as surprising as the Doncic trade) on the heels of the Wolves’ first Western Conference Finals appearance in two decades. The Timberwolves have built their identity on playing big– even without spacing big man Towns, size is still the name of the game for them, while the Lakers now infamously have opted to go mostly center-less and ride with a “small ball” lineup (in so much as a collection of guys between 6’7 and 6’9 can be considered “small”) late in games. Whichever team gets to impose their identity on the series will likely come out victorious, and it’s also the playoff debut for first-time head coach JJ Redick.
The real headline here is all the star power: Minnesota’s young superstar Anthony Edwards has been discussed as a potential future face of the league, and it’ll be his first time going against current (and longtime) face of the league, 40 year old LeBron James. A tussle for the belt this year in the first round should make for some truly entertaining television.
No. 4 seed Denver Nuggets vs. No. 5 seed Los Angeles Clippers
This is the first round series I find most intriguing from a basketball perspective, in that I believe it’s a total coin flip (and Vegas agrees, as it has the series at nearly even odds). On one side, you have the basically unanimously regarded Best Player in the World in Nikola Jokic, and a Nuggets team that, while only a few years removed from a championship, hasn’t really looked like itself this year. On the other, a Clippers team that has been the hottest team in basketball for several weeks running, on the back of a healthy Kawhi Leonard, a rejuvenated James Harden, and Ivica Zubac’s unlikely ascension from very solid rotation player to Most Improved candidate and one of the five or six best starting centers in the league. There’s added drama in that the Nuggets shockingly fired longtime head coach Michael Malone just a handful of games before the conclusion of the regular season, and are rolling with beloved interim coach (and NBA nepo baby) David Adelman to the postseason. On the other bench, Coach of the Year hopeful Ty Lue, widely regarded as one of the best coaches in basketball, has turned what many assumed would be a wasted Clippers season when they let star Paul George walk this summer (a move that has aged like a fine wine in light of his injury struggles in Philadelphia) into a surprising success story in the form of the fifth seed in a stacked western conference and a real shot at contention.
Both of these teams have clear advantages: the Clippers are much deeper and much better defensively, and, well, the Nuggets have Nikola Jokic, a player who is putting up stat lines this year that look like someone playing NBA 2K with all the sliders up. And then there’s the added wrinkle of Russell Westbrook: the mercurial former MVP who the Clippers ushered out the door after a poor showing last postseason, who will no doubt be chomping at the bit to flip the bird to his former team. Have your popcorn at the ready for some high drama and high level basketball in this one.