The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts suggests the next low-pressure area (marked ‘L’) may form over south Odisha and adjoining north Andhra Pradesh coasts by August 15 to revive monsoon over Central India.
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The heavy monsoon over Uttarakhand has relented to some extent even as the extremely heavy rain regime has shifted to East and North-East India on Thursday amidst indications that the weak phase over Central India and adjoining plains of North-West India may end in the next 6-7 days with formation of a cyclonic circulation/low-pressure area along the Odisha coast.
Extremely heavy rainfall (more than 21 cm) is likely at isolated places over Arunachal Pradesh on Friday, while it would be very heavy over the State for next sox-seven days; over Assam and Meghalaya on for four days; and over Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura for two days. Isolated very heavy rainfall is likely over Bihar on Friday; and hills of West Bengal and Sikkim for two days.
Monsoon trough
The backbone monsoon trough continued to nestle along the foothills of the Himalayas, north to its usual alignment across the plains of North-West and East India, indicating how the rainfall continues to be confined to the hills and adjoining plans. Only exception to this state of affairs has been the ongoing spell over South Peninsula from a sea-based circulation.
As for landslide-hit Uttarakhand, India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted isolated heavy rainfall for next seven days along with neighbouring Himachal Pradesh; over Haryana on Monday next; Uttar Pradesh for two days for now and three days from Monday and Jammu & Kashmir on Wednesday, with very heavy rainfall over East Uttar Pradesh on Tuesday and Wednesday.
Spell over South
On Thursday, the IMD traced the rain-driving circulation over South Peninsula to over south-west Bay off north Tamil Nadu, embedded in an east-west trough running from Coastal Karnataka to central parts of south Bay across South Interior Karnataka, south Rayalaseema and north Tamil Nadu, which continued to bring localised heavy rainfall over the region.
On the other hand, the monsoon trough lay extended from Ferozepur and Chandigarh before being directed along the foothills north-east Arunachal Pradesh, away from the Bay waters. The eastern end wallowing over land in Arunachal Pradesh, rather than dipping into the Bay waters, ruled out formation of a low-pressure area at least until mid-August as explained above.
Extremely heavy rain
The 24 hours ending on Thursday morning saw extremely heavy rain over the North-Easter States of Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram and Tripura. Heavy to very heavy rain was reported from the rest of the North-Eastern States; Assam and Meghalaya; and Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal. Heavy rain lashed parts of the hills of West Bengal and Sikkim; Odisha; Jharkhand; East Uttar Pradesh; Himachal Pradesh; Marathawada; Telangana; Rayalaseema; and North Interior Karnataka.
Rain deficit lower
Rainfall for the country as a whole at the end of the first six days of August that normally records the second heaviest monsoon after July, logged in above normal at 103 per cent, with East and North-East India alone with a deficit figure in double-digits (-18 per cent), followed by South Peninsula followed next (-3 per cent), though with persisting individual deficits for met subdivisions.
Published on August 7, 2025
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