As part of the buildup for the college football season, ESPN has released its FPI rankings for 2025. Which team do the super computers in Bristol, CT think will win the national championship? It’s the Texas Longhorns led by new starting quarterback Arch Manning.
According to ESPN, the Football Power Index (FPI) “is a predictive rating system that estimates each FBS team’s strength (in points per game relative to the national average) on offense, defense and special teams, making adjustments for starters lost, recruiting talent and other personnel changes. Those numbers are then plugged into the schedule, and everything is simulated 20,000 times to track each team’s odds of winning its conference, making the playoff and advancing through to the national title.”
After the 20,000 simulations were run for this season, the Longhorns ended up on top. Texas has the top FPI rating at 28.5. ESPN gives the Longhorns an 8.9% chance of going undefeated with a projected record of 10.4-2.1. UT has a 34.1% to win the SEC, an 83.9% chance of making the 12-team college football playoff, an astounding 37.7% chance to make the national title game and a 24.1% chance to win it all.
The Georgia Bulldogs have the second best FPI at 26.6 with a 17.9% chance to win the national championship. The Alabama Crimson Tide, Ohio State Buckeyes and Penn State Nittany Lions round out the top five.
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