Two division leaders collide when the Houston Astros and Philadelphia Phillies begin a three-game series on Tuesday at Daikin Park in Houston. The Astros (45-33) sit atop the American League West and are tied with the Yankees for the second-best record in the AL. Meanwhile, the Phillies (47-31) lead the National League East; only the Dodgers (48-31) have a better record in the NL.
Framber Valdez (8-4, 3.09 ERA) will take the mound for the Astros. He will be opposed by fellow lefty Ranger Suarez (6-1, 2.20). Sportsbooks have set Valdez’s total strikeout player prop at 6.5, while Suarez’s is 4.5. The SportsLine Projection Model, which simulates every MLB game 10,000 times, rates Valdez Under 6.5 (-114) as a 4-star play on its 5-star scale and Suarez Over 4.5 (-139) as a 4.5-star play.
However, the model has found better value elsewhere on Tuesday’s 15-game schedule. There is one pitcher strikeout player prop that the model has rated at 5 stars and two rated at 4.5 stars. Here they are:
Tarik Skubal Under 8.5 strikeouts (-144) vs. Athletics (6:40 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 7.1 strikeouts
The SportsLine Projection Model continues to fade the reigning AL Cy Young winner. Skubal (8-2, 2.06 ERA) is having another elite season, but he has gone Under 8.5 strikeouts in 10 of his 15 starts this season, including each of his last four. On Tuesday he will face an Athletics club that has struck out just 155 times against lefties this season; just six teams in the majors have struck out fewer times against southpaws.
Jameson Taillon Over 3.5 strikeouts (-125) vs. Cardinals (7:45 p.m. ET)
Rating: 4.5 stars
Model projection: 4.6 strikeouts
This is a reasonable number for the Cubs righty (7-4, 3.84) to reach. He has gone Over 3.5 strikeouts in 10 of 15 starts this season, including two of his last three starts. He is set to face a Cardinals club that has struck out 49 times over the last week, which is tied for the eighth-highest total in all of baseball. The last time he faced St. Louis, on Aug. 3, he had one of his best starts of the season, giving up only one run on six hits while striking out four and walking none in 6 innings.
Garrett Crochet Under 8.5 strikeouts (-145) vs. Angels (9:38 p.m. ET)
Rating: 5 stars
Model projection: 6.9 strikeouts
This is the model’s best pitcher strikeout prop for Tuesday. The Red Sox lefty (7-4, 2.20) has been excellent this season, but he has gone Under 8.5 strikeouts in 10 of 16 starts. The last five times he has taken the mound with Boston favored, he has gone Under three times. In addition, the Angels have struck out just 149 times against lefties this season—the fourth-fewest total in all of baseball.