Basketball fans, rejoice. The 2025 NBA Finals tip off Thursday night in Oklahoma City with two franchises that are new to the biggest stage. The Western Conference champion Oklahoma City Thunder have not been to the Finals since the 2012 season. Meanwhile the Eastern Conference champion Indiana Pacers are in the Finals for the first time since 2000. Game 1 of the best-of-seven series is set to tip at 8:30 p.m. ET.
Led by league MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, the Thunder were dominant in the regular season, outscoring teams by 12.9 points per game, an NBA record. Over the regular season and postseason, they have gone 80-18. As a result they are overwhelming favorites to win the series and are 9.5-point favorites in Game 1, per FanDuel Sportsbook. We’ll share our best bets from that game and Thursday’s other action below.
Let’s start our snapshot of what to watch and bet tonight on the hardwood. …
NBA Finals Game 1: Pacers at Thunder
- SportsLine model pick Under 230 (-108, DraftKings)
- SportsLine expert pick Shai Gilgeous-Alexander Over 6.5 total assists (Mike Barner, 176-121 in last 297 NBA Player Props Picks)
The SportsLine Projection Model is projecting 223 points in Game 1 and says that Under 230 hits 62.5% of the time. That makes Under 230 at -110 value, yet the public keeps betting the Over. According to SportsLine’s data, 92% has come in on the Over. Meanwhile Barner notes that Gilgeous-Alexander has at least seven assists in eight of his last 12 playoff games.
MLB best bets, games to watch on Thursday
Mets at Dodgers, 4:10 p.m. ET (MLB Network)
On Wednesday night, the Mets got two home runs and five RBI from Pete Alonso and 6.0 scoreless innings from starter Griffin Canning for a 6-1 victory over the Dodgers. New York has won two of the first three games of the series entering Thursday’s series finale. The Mets (39-23) now have the second best record in all of baseball, behind only the Tigers (41-22). However Los Angeles has crushed lefthanders all season, with a .786 OPS against southpaws (second best in the majors), and on Thursday the Dodgers face lefty David Peterson (4-2, 2.69 ERA). The SportsLine Projection Model also likes Alonso to stay hot. He has achieved seven Overs in his last 10 games, with an average of 2.3 total bases per game.
Guardians at Yankees, 7:05 p.m. ET (MLB Network)
The Yankees and Guardians play the rubber game of their three-game series when the clubs collide at Yankee Stadium in the Bronx. New York won the first game of the series on Tuesday, 3-2; Cleveland responded with a 4-0 victory on Wednesday. On Thursday, Yankees lefty Max Fried (7-1, 1.92) will try to become just the third eight-game winner in the majors, but the SportsLine Projection Model likes the Guardians to keep this a one-run game. Cleveland covers the 1.5-run spread 61.0% of the time, which is substantial value over the implied probability of 47.8%. The model also has a 5-star play on Chisholm going Over 0.5 total bases. He has gone Over his total bases market in each of his last five games, averaging 2.0 total bases per game.
More MLB best bets
WNBA best bets, games to watch on Thursday
Valkyries at Mercury, 10 p.m. ET (Amazon Prime Video)
- CBS expert pick: Valkyries +6 (Max Meyer)
- CBS expert player prop pick: Kayla Thornton Over 16.5 points and rebounds (Meyer)
Mercury All-Star forward Alyssa Thomas remains out with a calf injury, and her return remains uncertain. But that’s not the only reason why CBS Sports’ Max Meyer likes the Valkyries to cover as 6-point underdogs. He notes that the expansion Valkyries have played two of the best teams in the league, the Liberty and Lynx, tough. Golden State also has been blown out just twice this season. “They make an effort on the glass, they play zone defense more than any other team, and they love taking 3-pointers,” Meyer says. He also is taking Thornton Over 16.5 points and rebounds, noting that Phoenix has the third-lowest rebounding percentage (46.9) off of missed shots in the WNBA, a number that could be even worse with Thomas out.
More WNBA best bets
- Valkyries First Half +3 (Meyer)
Looking ahead
Stanley Cup Finals Game 2: Panthers at Oilers (8 p.m. Friday)
The Oilers took a 1-0 lead in the Stanley Cup Finals with a 4-3 overtime victory on Wednesday. Leon Draisaitl scored a power play goal with less than a minute remaining to compete Edmonton’s comeback from a 3-2 deficit. But the game may have been an anomaly. The Panthers had won 31 consecutive playoff games under coach Paul Maurice when holding the lead at an intermission break until Wednesday. The SportsLine Projection Model likes Florida to even the series on Friday.
French Open: Semifinals continue
- SportsLine expert pick Novak Djokovic vs. Jannik Sinner Over 35.5 games (Jose Onorato)
Djokovic reached his 51st grand slam semifinal by knocking off Alexander Zverev in four sets on Wednesday. That match included an incredible 41-shot rally, which Djokovic eventually won. He now turns his attention to the No. 1 seed, Sinner, and Onorato is expecting a tight match. The two have split their eight career meetings, 4-4. “Sinner has been flawless through the draw, not dropping a set and extending his Grand Slam win streak to 19 matches,” he says. “Djokovic, meanwhile, is peaking at the right time, coming off a four-set win over Zverev and showing flashes of vintage form.”