Cold calculations: On rival fronts, preparing for the Bihar polls

Rival fronts in Bihar are settling their internal dynamics even as constituents negotiate seat sharing and individual parties choose their candidates for the two-phase Assembly polls, on November 6, 2025 and November 11, 2025. The National Democratic Alliance (NDA) has had relatively smooth sailing in seat sharing with the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Janata Dal (United), or JD(U) taking 101 seats each. The Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas) is contesting 29 seats, while six seats each will be contested by the Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) and Rashtriya Lok Morcha. The Mahagathbandhan or Grand Alliance of the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD), the Congress, the CPI, CPI(M), CPI(ML) and others is, however, struggling with conflicting claims over seat sharing and even leadership of the alliance. In the clearest manifestation of the BJP’s upper hand in the NDA, it will, for the first time, contest as many seats as the JD(U). The JD(U) had already lost its senior partner status in the alliance in 2020, but its leader, Nitish Kumar, continued at the helm as the BJP did not want to upset the apple cart. In 2025, the BJP appears more confident of being an authentic platform for the backward caste communities which considered Mr. Kumar as their key leader. Consequently, the BJP has indicated that Mr. Kumar may be replaced in the event of the alliance winning yet another term, beating anti-incumbency.

The BJP’s strategy for primacy involves a combination of caste-based social engineering and a consolidation of horizontal identities such as youth, women, farmers and senior citizens. It is clever in accommodating caste interest groups, but is also using state resources in a brazen manner to offer welfare schemes that cut across caste. It is notable that the BJP, which decries subsidies, has designed schemes which are little more than ill-disguised efforts to purchase votes. A grant of ₹10,000 to start businesses has reached more than a third of women voters. Between the Congress and the RJD too, there is a cold war. As they enter the decisive phase of the battle, the two big parties appear to consider each other necessary but share little organic and emotional bonding. Their resolve and posture appear to fall short against the challenges. A formidable caste combination in Bihar is against the Mahagathbandhan, and the RJD has a past that continues to haunt it. The Mahagathbandhan is trying to match the NDA’s schemes by making undeliverable promises. Unfortunately for Bihar, the strategies of both alliance groups ring cynical than optimistic.